John Burroughs
prior #1 · recommended #1 · final #1 legacy 1.00Margin strength
7.6
vs top-16 avg 7.6
Projected margin
7.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.637
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
78.81
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
64.40
domain stat
Possession
73.55
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #1
- Recommended (model)
- #1
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #1
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #1
- Projected margin rating
- 7.5
- Departure loss %
- 0.3%
- Returning production share
- 96.8%
- Departure loss
- 0.3%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Desai | — | 14 | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Celia Ross | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Addison Grantham | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Claire Spector | — | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Courtney Wu | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hana Ilahi | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Ding | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Logsdon | offense | 16 | 35 | 14.6% | 33.1% | 8.8% | 0.0% / 8.8% | 13.1 |
| Jane Dunaway | offense | 15 | 43 | 17.9% | 30.2% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 12.5 |
| Reese Rafferty | offense | 15 | 88 | 39.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 12.5 |
| Morgan Cade | goalie | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.3% | 55.0% / 0.3% | 12.5 |
| Katy Chapman | offense | 11 | 17 | 7.6% | 16.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% / 5.6% | 6.9 |
| Sophie Buchowski | offense | 12 | 3 | 0.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 2.5 |
| Charlie Desai | offense | 14 | 14 | 5.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 2.1 |
| Azin Mofidi | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 1.9 |
| Flynn Engelsmann | offense | 15 | 14 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 1.9 |
| Finnley Desloge | defense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% / 5.0% | 1.1 |
| Devon Gable | offense | 9 | 7 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.9 |
| Lila Merlin | offense | 7 | 6 | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.9 |
| Celia Ross | defense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 0.9 |
| Caroline Deutsch | offense | 11 | 5 | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 0.8 |
| Sarah Ding | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 0.6 |
| Blake Desai | offense | 3 | 2 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Addison Grantham | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Courtney Wu | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Claire Spector | defense | 3 | 2 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Hana Ilahi | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 15.4 | blowout |
| Belleville West | 14.2 | blowout |
| Notre Dame | 13.8 | blowout |
| Francis Howell North | 12.8 | blowout |
| Ursuline Academy | 11.4 | blowout |
| Northwest | 11.0 | blowout |
| Nerinx Hall | 10.7 | blowout |
| Francis Howell Central | 10.5 | blowout |
| Wentzville | 9.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | 9.8 | — |
| Francis Howell | 9.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 9.4 | — |
| Parkway West | 9.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 9.3 | — |
| St. Dominic | 9.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 9.2 | — |
| Parkway South | 9.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | 8.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 8.4 | — |
| Lafayette | 8.2 | — |
| Marquette | 7.9 | — |
| Oakville | 7.8 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 7.7 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 6.9 | — |
| Fox High School | 6.9 | — |
| Westminster | 6.8 | — |
| Clayton | 6.0 | — |
| Edwardsville | 6.0 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 4.9 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 4.2 | — |
| MICDS | 3.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | 2.1 | — |
| Eureka | 1.9 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "John Burroughs",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 1,
"current_composite_rank": 1,
"recommended_rank": 1,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 70.97,
"score_drop": 0.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.968,
"departure_loss_pct": 0.3,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
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"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 1,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 3,
"projection_error": -2.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"John Burroughs\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"0.3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"1.4\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"1.2\", \"projection_error\": \"-2\", \"recommended_rank\": \"1\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.363\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"1\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"3\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"0.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.982\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"70.97\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.982\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"1\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.895\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"7.53\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"99.68\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"1\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.922\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.968\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"1\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 1,
"projected_margin_rating": 7.53,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 99.68,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "john-burroughs",
"effective_rank": 1,
"final_rank_resolved": 1
}