Incarnate Word
prior #30 · recommended #30 · final #30 legacy 0.10Margin strength
-13.8
vs top-16 avg -13.8
Projected margin
-18.2
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.386
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
35.20
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
47.64
domain stat
Possession
44.69
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #30
- Recommended (model)
- #30
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #30
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #34
- Projected margin rating
- -18.2
- Departure loss %
- 36.5%
- Returning production share
- 30.7%
- Departure loss
- 36.5%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.10
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia McKamley | — | 18 | 42.7% | 38.9% | 54.3% | 2.5% | 23.1% |
| Rory Barnes | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.4% | 4.9% |
| Rylee Green | — | 5 | 12.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| Ella Von Almen | — | 7 | 16.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Lillian Catlow | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Maggie Tierney | — | 2 | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Rachel Jansen | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia McKamley | utility | 14 | 26 | 42.7% | 57.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% / 4.9% | 13.5 |
| Charli Niemczyk | offense | 14 | 12 | 20.2% | 22.1% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 6.2 |
| Rory Barnes | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.3% | 29.3% / 0.0% | 4.9 |
| Rylee Green | offense | 14 | 7 | 12.3% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 3.6 |
| Rocio Reyes | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.8% | 21.8% / 0.0% | 3.6 |
| Ella Von Almen | utility | 11 | 10 | 16.3% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 2.2 |
| Reese Hopkins | offense | 12 | 2 | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 1.8 |
| Lillian Catlow | defense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% / 7.2% | 1.3 |
| Maggie Tierney | utility | 11 | 3 | 5.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 1.3 |
| Bella Harteis | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% / 1.3% | 0.9 |
| Molly Toal | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.5% | 0.8 |
| Claudia Catlow | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 0.6 |
| Gabby Painter | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.4 |
| Maddie Daub | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.3 |
| Rachel Jansen | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 0.3 |
| Ashlyn Deuser | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Emma McDannald | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -15.4 | blowout |
| Eureka | -13.5 | blowout |
| Parkway Central | -13.4 | blowout |
| MICDS | -12.3 | blowout |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -11.3 | blowout |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -10.5 | blowout |
| Edwardsville | -9.5 | — |
| Clayton | -9.4 | — |
| Westminster | -8.6 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -8.5 | — |
| Fox High School | -8.5 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -7.7 | — |
| Oakville | -7.6 | — |
| Marquette | -7.5 | — |
| Lafayette | -7.3 | — |
| Kirkwood | -7.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | -6.8 | — |
| Parkway South | -6.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -6.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -6.1 | — |
| St. Dominic | -6.1 | — |
| O'Fallon | -6.0 | — |
| Parkway West | -6.0 | — |
| Lindbergh | -5.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | -5.6 | — |
| Wentzville | -5.5 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -4.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | -4.7 | — |
| Northwest | -4.4 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -4.1 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -2.6 | — |
| Notre Dame | -1.6 | — |
| Belleville West | -1.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Incarnate Word",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 30,
"current_composite_rank": 33,
"recommended_rank": 30,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 26.81,
"score_drop": 36.5,
"returning_production_share": 0.307,
"departure_loss_pct": 36.5,
"legacy_prior": 0.099,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 30 (prior finish 30). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 30,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 32,
"projection_error": -2.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Incarnate Word\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 30 (prior finish 30). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"1.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"36.5\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.099\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"29.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"-2\", \"recommended_rank\": \"30\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.233\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"30\", \"regression_tracks\": \"underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"32\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"36.5\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.286\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"26.81\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.286\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"33\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.0\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-18.18\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"63.5\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"30\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.125\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.307\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"34\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 34,
"projected_margin_rating": -18.18,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 63.5,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "incarnate-word",
"effective_rank": 30,
"final_rank_resolved": 30
}