Incarnate Word
prior #32 · recommended #33 · final #33 legacy 0.10Margin strength
-12.8
vs top-16 avg -12.8
Projected margin
-16.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.397
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
33.67
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
52.25
domain stat
Possession
44.24
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #32
- Recommended (model)
- #33
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #33
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #36
- Projected margin rating
- -16.8
- Departure loss %
- 33.3%
- Returning production share
- 36.5%
- Departure loss
- 33.3%
- Seniors departing
- 7
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −4 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.10
Awards
Departing
Reese Hopkins (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Charli Niemzcyk (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Molly Toal (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charli Niemzcyk | — | 10 | 28.9% | 24.7% | 34.9% | 1.5% | 14.5% |
| Reese Hopkins | — | 8 | 24.4% | 20.2% | 27.3% | 3.2% | 12.0% |
| Molly Toal | — | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Sophie Koris | — | 4 | 13.4% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| Claudia Catlow | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Larissa Lou Harned | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charli Niemzcyk | offense | 13 | 18 | 28.9% | 38.9% | 4.2% | 0.0% / 4.2% | 9.3 |
| Reese Hopkins | offense | 13 | 16 | 24.3% | 31.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% / 5.9% | 8.1 |
| Lauren Pither | goalie | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.9% | 40.9% / 0.0% | 7.5 |
| Molly Toal | defense | 13 | 6 | 8.2% | 15.4% | 10.1% | 0.0% / 10.1% | 3.9 |
| Maddie Daub | utility | 11 | 7 | 10.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% / 2.7% | 2.5 |
| Sophie Koris | utility | 9 | 8 | 13.4% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 1.9 |
| Jillian Abegg | offense | 11 | 4 | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 1.7 |
| Clara Grothoff | utility | 12 | 3 | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% / 1.6% | 1.6 |
| Bella Harteis | defense | 6 | 1 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% / 0.7% | 1.2 |
| Avery Quarando | offense | 9 | 1 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 0.9 |
| Jade Hardin | offense | 6 | 1 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% / 1.1% | 0.7 |
| Kylee Donahue | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% / 0.0% | 0.7 |
| Claudia Catlow | defense | 9 | 1 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 0.6 |
| Aria Sinovich | offense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.4 |
| Gabby Painter | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 0.4 |
| Larissa Lou Harned | defense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.4 |
| Grace Eckenrodt | utility | 7 | 1 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.3 |
| Ceci Capotorto | utility | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Brooke Smith | utility | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -13.3 | blowout |
| Wentzville | -12.9 | blowout |
| MICDS | -12.0 | blowout |
| Westminster | -10.4 | blowout |
| John Burroughs | -9.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -9.6 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -9.4 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -9.2 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -9.1 | — |
| Edwardsville | -7.9 | — |
| Oakville | -6.5 | — |
| Lafayette | -6.2 | — |
| Fox High School | -6.1 | — |
| O'Fallon | -5.7 | — |
| Northwest | -5.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -5.1 | — |
| Parkway West | -4.8 | — |
| St. Dominic | -4.7 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -4.7 | — |
| Webster Groves | -4.6 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -4.2 | — |
| Kirkwood | -4.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | -4.1 | — |
| Marquette | -3.8 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -3.6 | — |
| Pattonville | -3.5 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -3.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | -3.3 | — |
| Belleville West | -2.8 | — |
| Parkway South | -2.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | -2.6 | — |
| Parkway North | -2.4 | — |
| Clayton | -2.0 | — |
| Notre Dame | -1.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | -0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Incarnate Word",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 32,
"current_composite_rank": 36,
"recommended_rank": 33,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 30.83,
"score_drop": 33.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.365,
"departure_loss_pct": 33.3,
"legacy_prior": 0.099,
"seniors_count": 7,
"awards_points": 4,
"departing_awards_points": 4,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 33,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 33,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Incarnate Word\", \"avg_margin\": \"-6.29\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.5\", \"final_rank\": \"33\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"margin_std\": \"8.8\", \"score_drop\": \"33.3\", \"top8_games\": \"2\", \"margin_wins\": \"4\", \"top16_games\": \"5\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.099\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"4\", \"margin_losses\": \"10\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"7\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"0-2\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"13.5\", \"departing_awards\": \"Reese Hopkins (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Charli Niemzcyk (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Molly Toal (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"33\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.119\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-5.21\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"33\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"32\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"-12.5\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"33.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.149\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-12.8\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"1.79\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"30.83\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.149\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"36\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.25\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"4\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-16.8\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"66.66\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"33\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.233\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.365\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"36\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 36,
"projected_margin_rating": -16.8,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -12.8,
"projected_turnover_index": 66.66,
"departing_awards": "Reese Hopkins (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Charli Niemzcyk (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Molly Toal (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "incarnate-word",
"effective_rank": 33,
"final_rank_resolved": 33
}