Francis Howell
prior #17 · recommended #17 · final #17 legacy 0.55Margin strength
-4.2
vs top-16 avg -4.2
Projected margin
-8.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.498
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
56.04
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
63.12
domain stat
Possession
61.84
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #17
- Recommended (model)
- #17
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #17
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #25
- Projected margin rating
- -8.8
- Departure loss %
- 38.5%
- Returning production share
- 31.5%
- Departure loss
- 38.5%
- Seniors departing
- 8
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.55
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
- · backtest_large_error
Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: late_underclass_surge
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhianne Toebben | — | 32 | 21.9% | 17.8% | 52.6% | 6.7% | 18.7% |
| Natalia Fletcher | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51.2% | 12.4% |
| Lily Piper | — | 15 | 10.4% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 4.6% |
| Magnolia Machado | — | 20 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% |
| Gianna Sink | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Brooke Taylor | — | 3 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Lal | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhianne Toebben | offense | 11 | 30 | 21.9% | 56.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% / 9.4% | 16.4 |
| Natalia Fletcher | goalie | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 60.2% | 55.0% / 5.2% | 13.3 |
| Audrey Cornett | offense | 14 | 34 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 0.0% / 6.4% | 6.8 |
| Anika Wilkens | offense | 14 | 29 | 22.6% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 6.3 |
| Lily Piper | offense | 14 | 14 | 10.4% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 5.6 |
| Magnolia Machado | offense | 14 | 19 | 13.8% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 3.7 |
| Olivia Muir | offense | 9 | 6 | 3.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 2.1 |
| Rowan Clark | offense | 6 | 3 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 1.0 |
| Morgan Nickell | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.6% | 3.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.8 |
| Gianna Sink | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 0.7 |
| Riese Grier | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.6 |
| Brooke Taylor | offense | 7 | 3 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.6 |
| Julia Lal | offense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.6 |
| Sonali Joshi | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 0.6 |
| Nina Savio | defense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.4 |
| Cameron Vaughn | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Katie Clark | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Lily Combs | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -9.8 | — |
| Eureka | -7.9 | — |
| Parkway Central | -7.8 | — |
| MICDS | -6.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -5.7 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 5.6 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.9 | — |
| Belleville West | 4.4 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.0 | — |
| Clayton | -3.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -3.8 | — |
| Westminster | -3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 3.0 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -2.9 | — |
| Fox High School | -2.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -2.1 | — |
| Oakville | -2.0 | — |
| Marquette | -1.9 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.5 | — |
| Kirkwood | -1.5 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.2 | — |
| Northwest | 1.2 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 0.9 | — |
| Parkway South | -0.8 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 0.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | -0.5 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -0.5 | — |
| Parkway West | -0.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | -0.4 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.1 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Francis Howell",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 17,
"current_composite_rank": 17,
"recommended_rank": 17,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 36.38,
"score_drop": 38.5,
"returning_production_share": 0.315,
"departure_loss_pct": 38.5,
"legacy_prior": 0.55,
"seniors_count": 8,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 3,
"action_flag_count": 2,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "high",
"regression_tracks": "post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 17 (prior finish 17). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate; underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "late_underclass_surge",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 17,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 24,
"projection_error": -7.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Francis Howell\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 17 (prior finish 17). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate; underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.308\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error\", \"flag_count\": \"3\", \"score_drop\": \"38.5\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.55\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"8\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"high\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"28.7\", \"projection_error\": \"-7\", \"recommended_rank\": \"17\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.561\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error\", \"action_flag_count\": \"2\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"17\", \"regression_tracks\": \"post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"24\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"38.5\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.312\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"36.38\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.312\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"17\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.346\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.84\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"61.48\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"17\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.527\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.315\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"late_underclass_surge\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"25\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 25,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.84,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 61.48,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "francis-howell",
"effective_rank": 17,
"final_rank_resolved": 17
}