Francis Howell North
prior #28 · recommended #29 · final #29 legacy 0.30Margin strength
-11.0
vs top-16 avg -11.0
Projected margin
-13.8
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.440
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
42.41
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
64.11
domain stat
Possession
42.78
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #28
- Recommended (model)
- #29
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #29
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #31
- Projected margin rating
- -13.8
- Departure loss %
- 23.6%
- Returning production share
- 57.0%
- Departure loss
- 23.6%
- Seniors departing
- 14
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.30
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laney Quandt | — | 12 | 23.2% | 19.1% | 23.0% | 1.4% | 12.2% |
| Isabella Lash | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 7.2% |
| Alexis Merritt | — | 9 | 17.2% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.9% |
| Olivia Van Horn | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ella Varvera | — | 2 | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Camille Krekeler | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayleigh Meine | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lea Wenger | — | 0 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lindsay Haislip | — | 0 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattie Gibbs | offense | 14 | 11 | 14.0% | 43.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% / 7.9% | 9.2 |
| Laney Quandt | offense | 11 | 20 | 23.2% | 26.9% | 4.1% | 0.0% / 4.1% | 7.7 |
| Morgan Conlon | goalie | 13 | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 28.5% | 27.7% / 0.9% | 6.5 |
| Ariana Larsen | offense | 13 | 16 | 18.9% | 20.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 6.3 |
| Isabella Lash | defense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 27.3% / 0.7% | 6.3 |
| Bailey Cosby | offense | 13 | 14 | 17.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 4.2 |
| Alexis Merritt | offense | 11 | 15 | 17.2% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 3.3 |
| Ella Varvera | offense | 13 | 3 | 3.8% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 1.5 |
| Presley Jaques | offense | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% / 4.0% | 0.9 |
| Olivia Van Horn | offense | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 0.9 |
| Lea Wenger | offense | 9 | 2 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 0.6 |
| Lindsay Haislip | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 0.6 |
| Zidian Walker | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.4 |
| Camille Krekeler | defense | 7 | 1 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.4 |
| Lily Wardle | offense | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Kayleigh Meine | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Ally Freese | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Brynn Bray | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Lochlan Marable | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Scar Mulka | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Kelsey Spoors | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -12.8 | blowout |
| Eureka | -10.9 | blowout |
| Parkway Central | -10.7 | blowout |
| MICDS | -9.7 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -8.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -7.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | -6.8 | — |
| Clayton | -6.8 | — |
| Westminster | -6.0 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -5.9 | — |
| Fox High School | -5.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -5.1 | — |
| Oakville | -5.0 | — |
| Marquette | -4.9 | — |
| Lafayette | -4.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | -4.5 | — |
| Webster Groves | -4.2 | — |
| Parkway South | -3.8 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -3.7 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -3.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | -3.5 | — |
| O'Fallon | -3.4 | — |
| Parkway West | -3.4 | — |
| Lindbergh | -3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | -3.0 | — |
| Wentzville | -2.9 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 2.6 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -2.3 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | -2.1 | — |
| Northwest | -1.8 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -1.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 1.4 | — |
| Notre Dame | 1.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Francis Howell North",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 28,
"current_composite_rank": 31,
"recommended_rank": 29,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 37.33,
"score_drop": 23.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.57,
"departure_loss_pct": 23.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.296,
"seniors_count": 14,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 29,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 25,
"projection_error": 4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Francis Howell North\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"23.6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.296\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"14\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"29.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"25.6\", \"projection_error\": \"4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"29\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.412\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"28\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"25\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"23.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.702\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"16.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"37.33\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.702\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"31\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.714\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-13.83\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"76.44\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"29\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.489\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.57\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"31\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 31,
"projected_margin_rating": -13.83,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 76.44,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "francis-howell-north",
"effective_rank": 29,
"final_rank_resolved": 29
}