Francis Howell Central
prior #25 · recommended #25 · final #25 legacy 0.45Margin strength
-8.5
vs top-16 avg -8.5
Projected margin
-10.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.443
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
49.99
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
40.53
domain stat
Possession
55.28
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #25
- Recommended (model)
- #24
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #25
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #27
- Projected margin rating
- -10.0
- Departure loss %
- 12.4%
- Returning production share
- 25.3%
- Departure loss
- 12.4%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.45
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKenzie Schweitzer | — | 22 | 28.6% | 24.6% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Brianna Lewis | — | 5 | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Lily Crews | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Nora Furlow | — | 3 | 4.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Lucianna Krebs | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raena Crews | offense | 12 | 29 | 29.3% | 47.2% | 6.6% | 0.0% / 6.6% | 13.3 |
| Addison Holtgrewe | offense | 12 | 14 | 15.2% | 21.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% / 6.9% | 7.0 |
| McKenzie Schweitzer | offense | 7 | 23 | 28.6% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 7.0 |
| Brianna Lewis | offense | 10 | 8 | 7.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 1.9 |
| Lucy Landry | offense | 10 | 10 | 8.8% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 1.8 |
| Keeley Welker | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.7% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% / 1.9% | 1.7 |
| Nora Furlow | offense | 11 | 6 | 4.7% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 1.3 |
| Katie Wuertz | offense | 11 | 3 | 3.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 1.0 |
| Lily Crews | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% / 5.6% | 0.8 |
| Sivani Kandel | offense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.7 |
| Emma Pullam | offense | 8 | 1 | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 0.7 |
| Jordan Strange | offense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.4 |
| Lucianna Krebs | goalie | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 0.4 |
| Sophia Serino | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 0.3 |
| Izzy Brewer | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 0.3 |
| Amelia Kitsmil | defense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.2 |
| Olivia Unash | utility | 4 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Kenzie Kline | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Kaitlyn Jones | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -10.5 | blowout |
| Eureka | -8.6 | — |
| Parkway Central | -8.4 | — |
| MICDS | -7.4 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -6.3 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -5.6 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 4.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | -4.5 | — |
| Clayton | -4.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 3.7 | — |
| Westminster | -3.7 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -3.6 | — |
| Fox High School | -3.6 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -2.8 | — |
| Oakville | -2.7 | — |
| Marquette | -2.6 | — |
| Lafayette | -2.4 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 2.3 | — |
| Kirkwood | -2.2 | — |
| Webster Groves | -1.9 | — |
| Parkway South | -1.5 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -1.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -1.2 | — |
| St. Dominic | -1.2 | — |
| O'Fallon | -1.1 | — |
| Parkway West | -1.1 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 0.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | -0.7 | — |
| Francis Howell | -0.7 | — |
| Wentzville | -0.6 | — |
| Northwest | 0.5 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Francis Howell Central",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 25,
"current_composite_rank": 30,
"recommended_rank": 24,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 40.82,
"score_drop": 12.4,
"returning_production_share": 0.253,
"departure_loss_pct": 12.4,
"legacy_prior": 0.45,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 25,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 26,
"projection_error": -2.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Francis Howell Central\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.136\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"12.4\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.45\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"3.8\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"27.2\", \"projection_error\": \"-2\", \"recommended_rank\": \"24\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.227\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"25\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"26\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"12.4\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.423\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"6.2\", \"projected_composite\": \"40.82\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.423\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"30\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.318\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-9.99\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"87.62\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"25\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.435\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.253\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"27\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 27,
"projected_margin_rating": -9.99,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 87.62,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "francis-howell-central",
"effective_rank": 25,
"final_rank_resolved": 25
}