Francis Howell Central
prior #26 · recommended #24 · final #24 legacy 0.45Margin strength
-7.0
vs top-16 avg -7.0
Projected margin
-8.2
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.431
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
45.07
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
66.43
domain stat
Possession
49.62
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #26
- Recommended (model)
- #24
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #24
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #16
- Projected margin rating
- -8.2
- Departure loss %
- 10.3%
- Returning production share
- 64.7%
- Departure loss
- 10.3%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +3 returning · −4 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.45
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
Departing
Lucy Landry (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Katie Wuertz (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Sophia Serino (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Addison Holtgrewe (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Kennedy Holtgrewe (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Pullam | — | 4 | 7.9% | 3.7% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| Lucy Landry | — | 10 | 17.9% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| Katie Wuertz | — | 6 | 11.3% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Sophia Serino | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Jaelyn Wooldridge | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison Holtgrewe | offense | 11 | 26 | 30.6% | 50.3% | 10.6% | 0.0% / 10.6% | 14.8 |
| Kennedy Holtgrewe | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.5% | 55.0% / 0.5% | 12.9 |
| Brianna Lewis | offense | 11 | 10 | 11.4% | 18.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 5.4 |
| Emma Pullam | offense | 10 | 7 | 7.9% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 4.0 |
| Keeley Welker | offense | 10 | 6 | 8.9% | 10.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 4.0 |
| Lucy Landry | offense | 10 | 12 | 17.9% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 3.3 |
| Katie Wuertz | offense | 9 | 8 | 11.3% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 2.3 |
| Izzy Brewer | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 0.0% / 5.8% | 1.9 |
| Jordan Strange | offense | 6 | 5 | 5.8% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% / 1.2% | 1.2 |
| Sophia Serino | defense | 8 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 1.1 |
| Kaitlyn Jones | defense | 10 | 5 | 3.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.7 |
| Sivani Kandel | offense | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.3 |
| Kenzie Kline | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.3 |
| Abi Wilson | goalie | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% / 1.1% | 0.3 |
| Anna Reed | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Jaelyn Wooldridge | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Sydney Muresan | defense | 4 | 1 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Payton Ezell | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Abi Albrecht | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Maddie Wise | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -8.2 | — |
| Wentzville | -7.8 | — |
| MICDS | -6.9 | — |
| Westminster | -5.2 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 5.1 | — |
| John Burroughs | -4.8 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.7 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -4.5 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -4.2 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -4.0 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -3.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 3.9 | — |
| Clayton | 3.1 | — |
| Parkway North | 2.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | -2.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | 2.6 | — |
| Belleville West | 2.4 | — |
| Parkway South | 2.4 | — |
| Francis Howell | 1.8 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 1.7 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 1.6 | — |
| Pattonville | 1.6 | — |
| Oakville | -1.4 | — |
| Marquette | 1.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | 1.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | 1.1 | — |
| Lafayette | -1.1 | — |
| Fox High School | -1.0 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 0.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 0.6 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 0.5 | — |
| O'Fallon | -0.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 0.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 0.3 | — |
| Northwest | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Francis Howell Central",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 26,
"current_composite_rank": 19,
"recommended_rank": 24,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 49.11,
"score_drop": 10.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.647,
"departure_loss_pct": 10.3,
"legacy_prior": 0.45,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 7,
"departing_awards_points": 4,
"returning_awards_points": 3,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 24 (prior finish 26). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 24,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 24,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Francis Howell Central\", \"avg_margin\": \"-1.79\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 24 (prior finish 26). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"24\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"6.47\", \"score_drop\": \"10.3\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"5\", \"top16_games\": \"3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.45\", \"margin_games\": \"14\", \"awards_points\": \"7\", \"margin_losses\": \"9\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"2.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Lucy Landry (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Katie Wuertz (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Sophia Serino (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"19.9\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"24\", \"returning_awards\": \"Addison Holtgrewe (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Kennedy Holtgrewe (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.259\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-1.57\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"24\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"26\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"10.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.607\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-7.0\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"4.58\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"8.1\", \"projected_composite\": \"49.11\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.607\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"19\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.381\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"4\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-8.24\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"3\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"89.69\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"24\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.442\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.647\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"16\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 16,
"projected_margin_rating": -8.24,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -7.0,
"projected_turnover_index": 89.69,
"departing_awards": "Lucy Landry (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Katie Wuertz (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Sophia Serino (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Addison Holtgrewe (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Kennedy Holtgrewe (all conference: Green; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "francis-howell-central",
"effective_rank": 24,
"final_rank_resolved": 24
}