Fox High School
prior #33 · recommended #31 · final #31 legacy 0.18Margin strength
-1.4
vs top-16 avg -6.0
Projected margin
-4.0
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.404
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
47.49
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
73.77
domain stat
Possession
47.40
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #33
- Recommended (model)
- #31
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #31
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #11
- Projected margin rating
- -4.0
- Departure loss %
- 21.6%
- Returning production share
- 57.5%
- Departure loss
- 21.6%
- Seniors departing
- 11
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.18
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holle Ritter | — | 0 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41.3% | 13.6% |
| Abigail Smith | — | 12 | 22.8% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 6.5% |
| Alex Maness | — | 4 | 8.2% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| Peyton Bice | — | 0 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Placke | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlee Pattillo | — | 2 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Cook | — | 1 | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miranda Hardy | — | 0 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holle Ritter | goalie | 11 | 1 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 50.3% | 49.1% / 1.2% | 13.2 |
| Clare Keys | utility | 10 | 16 | 22.0% | 35.9% | 4.4% | 0.0% / 4.4% | 9.7 |
| Cora Summers | utility | 10 | 7 | 8.6% | 39.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% / 2.9% | 7.5 |
| Abigail Smith | utility | 10 | 20 | 22.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% / 3.3% | 5.0 |
| Elayna Birschbach | utility | 11 | 5 | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 0.0% / 5.7% | 3.5 |
| Izabella Frissell | utility | 11 | 8 | 9.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 3.1 |
| Alex Maness | utility | 11 | 7 | 8.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 2.3 |
| Kayla Orth | utility | 11 | 8 | 9.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% / 2.2% | 2.1 |
| Zoey Boyd | goalie | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% / 0.0% | 1.5 |
| Madison Martise | utility | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 1.4 |
| Haley Iverson | utility | 6 | 2 | 2.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 1.1 |
| Carlee Pattillo | utility | 11 | 4 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.9 |
| Peyton Bice | utility | 9 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 0.9 |
| Hunter Cook | utility | 5 | 2 | 2.8% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.8 |
| McKenna Sinak | utility | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 0.8 |
| Miranda Hardy | utility | 6 | 1 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.7 |
| Mindi Hau | utility | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.6 |
| Bella Sandrowski | utility | 6 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.4 |
| Kaitlyn Fiscella | utility | 2 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.2 |
| Lydia Baseler | utility | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Gabriella Boyd | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Ava Placke | utility | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.1 |
| Callie Fitzwater | utility | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 8.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 7.3 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.9 | — |
| Notre Dame | 6.9 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 5.9 | — |
| Eureka | -5.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | -4.9 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 4.4 | — |
| Northwest | 4.0 | — |
| MICDS | -3.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 3.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 3.6 | — |
| Wentzville | 3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | 2.9 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -2.8 | — |
| Lindbergh | 2.8 | — |
| St. Dominic | 2.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 2.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | 2.4 | — |
| Parkway West | 2.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 2.2 | — |
| Parkway South | 2.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -2.0 | — |
| Webster Groves | 1.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | 1.4 | — |
| Lafayette | 1.2 | — |
| Edwardsville | -1.0 | — |
| Oakville | 0.9 | — |
| Marquette | 0.9 | — |
| Clayton | -0.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 0.8 | — |
| Westminster | -0.2 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Fox High School",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 33,
"current_composite_rank": 11,
"recommended_rank": 31,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 41.14,
"score_drop": 21.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.575,
"departure_loss_pct": 21.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.185,
"seniors_count": 11,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 31 (prior finish 33). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 31,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 29,
"projection_error": 2.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Fox High School\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 31 (prior finish 33). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"21.6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.185\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"11\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"19.7\", \"projection_error\": \"2\", \"recommended_rank\": \"31\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.321\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"33\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"29\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"21.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.905\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"41.14\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.905\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"11\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.556\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-4.04\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"78.44\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"31\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.516\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.575\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"11\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 11,
"projected_margin_rating": -4.04,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 78.44,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "fox-high-school",
"effective_rank": 31,
"final_rank_resolved": 31
}