Fox High School
prior #29 · recommended #31 · final #31 legacy 0.18Margin strength
-1.2
vs top-16 avg -7.0
Projected margin
-6.6
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.382
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
50.87
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
68.34
domain stat
Possession
50.97
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #29
- Recommended (model)
- #31
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #31
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #13
- Projected margin rating
- -6.6
- Departure loss %
- 44.7%
- Returning production share
- 16.9%
- Departure loss
- 44.7%
- Seniors departing
- 12
- Awards points
- +4 returning · −11 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.18
Action-flagged
- · low_returning_heavy_loss
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: late_underclass_surge
Awards
Departing
Clare Keys (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Elayna Birschbach (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Izabella Frissell (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Zoey Boyd (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Kaitlyn Fiscella (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Madison Martise (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Mindi Hau (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Callie Fitzwater (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Haley Iverson (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Kayla Orth (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); McKenna Sinak (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elayna Birschbach | — | 7 | 11.1% | 6.9% | 52.5% | 3.4% | 14.5% |
| Zoey Boyd | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.4% | 11.0% |
| Clare Keys | — | 18 | 27.5% | 23.3% | 18.9% | 2.6% | 10.4% |
| Izabella Frissell | — | 11 | 18.0% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 5.4% |
| Kaitlyn Fiscella | — | 10 | 15.7% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Madison Martise | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Mindi Hau | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bella Sandrowski | — | 0 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriella Boyd | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karmah Amaru | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lydia Baseler | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoey Boyd | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 13.2 |
| Elayna Birschbach | offense | 11 | 11 | 11.1% | 56.5% | 6.0% | 0.0% / 6.0% | 12.1 |
| Clare Keys | offense | 11 | 26 | 27.5% | 22.9% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 9.7 |
| Izabella Frissell | offense | 12 | 18 | 18.0% | 2.3% | 12.2% | 0.0% / 12.2% | 6.5 |
| Kayla Orth | offense | 12 | 16 | 15.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 3.4 |
| Kaitlyn Fiscella | offense | 11 | 15 | 15.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 2.9 |
| Mya Castro | offense | 9 | 3 | 2.6% | 7.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 1.7 |
| Haley Iverson | offense | 10 | 2 | 1.2% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 1.7 |
| McKenna Sinak | offense | 11 | 3 | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 1.4 |
| Madison Martise | defense | 12 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% / 5.5% | 1.3 |
| Callie Fitzwater | offense | 8 | 6 | 4.1% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 1.3 |
| Mindi Hau | defense | 10 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.6 |
| Bella Sandrowski | offense | 6 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.3 |
| Lydia Baseler | offense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 0.2 |
| Brooklyn Sauer | offense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.2 |
| Gabriella Boyd | defense | 5 | 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.2 |
| Sophia Cato | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Karmah Amaru | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Eureka | -7.2 | — |
| Wentzville | -6.8 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 6.1 | — |
| MICDS | -5.9 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 5.7 | — |
| Notre Dame | 4.9 | — |
| Westminster | -4.2 | — |
| Clayton | 4.1 | — |
| John Burroughs | -3.8 | — |
| Parkway North | 3.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | 3.6 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -3.5 | — |
| Parkway South | 3.4 | — |
| Belleville West | 3.3 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -3.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -3.1 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -3.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | 2.8 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 2.7 | — |
| Pattonville | 2.6 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 2.5 | — |
| Marquette | 2.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | 2.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | 2.0 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 1.9 | — |
| Edwardsville | -1.8 | — |
| Webster Groves | 1.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 1.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 1.4 | — |
| Parkway West | 1.3 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 1.0 | — |
| Northwest | 0.9 | — |
| O'Fallon | 0.4 | — |
| Oakville | -0.4 | — |
| Lafayette | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Fox High School",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 29,
"current_composite_rank": 11,
"recommended_rank": 31,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 2,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 33.06,
"score_drop": 44.7,
"returning_production_share": 0.169,
"departure_loss_pct": 44.7,
"legacy_prior": 0.185,
"seniors_count": 12,
"awards_points": 15,
"departing_awards_points": 11,
"returning_awards_points": 4,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 3,
"action_flag_count": 2,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 31 (prior finish 29). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "late_underclass_surge",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 31,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 31,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Fox High School\", \"avg_margin\": \"-0.75\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 31 (prior finish 29). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"31\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"3\", \"margin_std\": \"7.66\", \"score_drop\": \"44.7\", \"top8_games\": \"0\", \"margin_wins\": \"4\", \"top16_games\": \"1\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.185\", \"margin_games\": \"12\", \"awards_points\": \"15\", \"margin_losses\": \"8\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"12\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Clare Keys (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Elayna Birschbach (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Izabella Frissell (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Zoey Boyd (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Kaitlyn Fiscella (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Madison Martise (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Mindi Hau (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"38.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"31\", \"returning_awards\": \"Callie Fitzwater (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Haley Iverson (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Kayla Orth (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); McKenna Sinak (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.327\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"2\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"2\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"-1.25\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"31\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"29\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.0\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"44.7\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.225\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"-7.0\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"0.0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"42.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"33.06\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"2\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.225\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"11\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.529\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"11\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-6.61\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"4\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"55.29\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"31\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.42\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.169\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"late_underclass_surge\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"13\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 13,
"projected_margin_rating": -6.61,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": -7.0,
"projected_turnover_index": 55.29,
"departing_awards": "Clare Keys (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Elayna Birschbach (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Izabella Frissell (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Zoey Boyd (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Kaitlyn Fiscella (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Madison Martise (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Mindi Hau (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Callie Fitzwater (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Haley Iverson (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Kayla Orth (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); McKenna Sinak (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "fox-high-school",
"effective_rank": 31,
"final_rank_resolved": 31
}