Eureka
prior #3 · recommended #3 · final #3 legacy 1.00Margin strength
5.9
vs top-16 avg 5.9
Projected margin
4.4
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.640
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
72.06
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
59.98
domain stat
Possession
78.83
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #3
- Recommended (model)
- #3
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #3
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #2
- Projected margin rating
- 4.4
- Departure loss %
- 13.0%
- Returning production share
- 72.9%
- Departure loss
- 13.0%
- Seniors departing
- 4
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby Copeland | — | 64 | 28.4% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 7.0% |
| Katie Criswell | — | 46 | 20.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 4.7% |
| Maura Silvernail | — | 8 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| Belle DeRennaux | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Emerson | offense | 16 | 6 | 2.9% | 45.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% / 4.7% | 12.2 |
| Ainsley Seitz | goalie | 16 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 54.1% | 51.5% / 2.6% | 11.5 |
| Addy Hays | offense | 15 | 13 | 7.1% | 29.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 9.3 |
| Ruby Copeland | offense | 16 | 59 | 28.4% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 0.0% / 4.2% | 8.0 |
| Katie Criswell | offense | 16 | 42 | 20.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 6.7 |
| Amelia Craig | offense | 16 | 33 | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% / 4.3% | 5.6 |
| Alyssa Olivio | offense | 16 | 21 | 10.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 0.0% / 5.2% | 5.0 |
| Maura Silvernail | offense | 16 | 8 | 3.6% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 3.5 |
| Morgan Bilby | offense | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% / 1.7% | 1.5 |
| Kaitlyn Benoist | offense | 15 | 8 | 3.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 1.3 |
| Sam Laudano | goalie | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% / 0.0% | 0.7 |
| Mel Hoevelmann | offense | 11 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.6 |
| Reagan Sipiorski | defense | 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% / 2.7% | 0.6 |
| Zoe Weston | offense | 8 | 2 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.5 |
| Amelia Weick | defense | 10 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% / 2.1% | 0.5 |
| Lauren Beiermann | offense | 5 | 4 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.4 |
| Tessa Bauer | offense | 7 | 3 | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.4 |
| Remi Meyers | offense | 5 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.3 |
| Georgia Banderman | offense | 4 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Belle DeRennaux | defense | 4 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.1 |
| Ally Cabbabe | defense | 2 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Lily Schickler | defense | 1 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 13.5 | blowout |
| Belleville West | 12.3 | blowout |
| Notre Dame | 11.9 | blowout |
| Francis Howell North | 10.9 | blowout |
| Ursuline Academy | 9.5 | — |
| Northwest | 9.1 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 8.8 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 8.6 | — |
| Wentzville | 8.0 | — |
| Francis Howell | 7.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | 7.9 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 7.5 | — |
| O'Fallon | 7.5 | — |
| Parkway West | 7.5 | — |
| St. Dominic | 7.4 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 7.3 | — |
| Parkway South | 7.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | 6.7 | — |
| Kirkwood | 6.5 | — |
| Lafayette | 6.3 | — |
| Marquette | 6.0 | — |
| Oakville | 5.9 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 5.8 | — |
| Fox High School | 5.1 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 5.0 | — |
| Westminster | 4.9 | — |
| Clayton | 4.1 | — |
| Edwardsville | 4.1 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 3.0 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 2.3 | — |
| John Burroughs | -1.9 | — |
| MICDS | 1.2 | — |
| Parkway Central | 0.2 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Eureka",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 3,
"current_composite_rank": 2,
"recommended_rank": 3,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 59.39,
"score_drop": 13.0,
"returning_production_share": 0.729,
"departure_loss_pct": 13.0,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 4,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": null,
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 0,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": null,
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 3,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 1,
"projection_error": 2.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Eureka\", \"board_note\": \"Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"\", \"flag_count\": \"0\", \"score_drop\": \"13.0\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"4\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"3.4\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"34.7\", \"projection_error\": \"2\", \"recommended_rank\": \"3\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.416\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"3\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"1\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"13.0\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.887\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"2.5\", \"projected_composite\": \"59.39\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.887\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"2\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.506\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"4.38\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"87.03\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"3\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.485\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.729\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"2\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 2,
"projected_margin_rating": 4.38,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 87.03,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "eureka",
"effective_rank": 3,
"final_rank_resolved": 3
}