Eureka
prior #1 · recommended #1 · final #1 legacy 1.00Margin strength
7.2
vs top-16 avg 7.2
Projected margin
5.4
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.667
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
75.41
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
64.75
domain stat
Possession
80.93
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #1
- Recommended (model)
- #1
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #1
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #1
- Projected margin rating
- 5.4
- Departure loss %
- 15.1%
- Returning production share
- 67.9%
- Departure loss
- 15.1%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +25 returning · −22 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review
Board note: "pytest workspace smoke 1fd2d766"
· 2026-05-30
Awards
Departing
Amelia Craig (all state first: 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Amelia Craig (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Mel Hoevelmann (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Alyssa Olivio (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Amelia Weick (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Reagan Sipiorski (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Remi Meyers (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)
Returning
Emily Emerson (all state first: 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all state first: 1st Team); Emily Emerson (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Addy Hays (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Emmy Seiler (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Kaitlyn Benoist (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sam Laudano (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Whitney Pickert (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amelia Craig | — | 51 | 21.4% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.7% |
| Ainsley Seitz | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 4.0% |
| Morgan Bilby | — | 6 | 2.8% | 0.0% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| Alyssa Olivio | — | 17 | 7.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| Mel Hoevelmann | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Remi Meyers | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Amelia Weick | — | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reagan Sipiorski | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zoe Weston | — | 4 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Emerson | defense | 16 | 7 | 3.0% | 64.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% / 4.2% | 16.5 |
| Sam Laudano | goalie | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.0% | 34.0% / 1.0% | 7.9 |
| Amelia Craig | offense | 17 | 51 | 21.4% | 1.3% | 5.4% | 0.0% / 5.4% | 7.2 |
| Tessa Srsen | offense | 17 | 42 | 18.3% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 6.0 |
| Ainsley Seitz | goalie | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.7% | 21.0% / 0.8% | 4.9 |
| Morgan Bilby | offense | 17 | 7 | 2.8% | 12.8% | 4.5% | 0.0% / 4.5% | 4.9 |
| Addy Hays | offense | 16 | 13 | 4.8% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 4.4 |
| Emmy Seiler | offense | 16 | 28 | 12.8% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% / 3.6% | 4.2 |
| Alyssa Olivio | offense | 17 | 17 | 7.1% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% / 3.1% | 4.2 |
| Kaitlyn Benoist | offense | 17 | 33 | 13.6% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 4.0 |
| Whitney Pickert | offense | 14 | 13 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% / 1.0% | 1.7 |
| Shelby Seiler | offense | 15 | 13 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 1.6 |
| Remi Meyers | defense | 13 | 1 | 0.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 1.2 |
| Mel Hoevelmann | defense | 15 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 0.0% / 3.9% | 0.9 |
| Zoe Weston | offense | 9 | 6 | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.7 |
| Amelia Weick | defense | 14 | 2 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% / 2.5% | 0.6 |
| Reagan Sipiorski | defense | 15 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% / 2.3% | 0.5 |
| Letty Leeper | offense | 4 | 2 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.3 |
| Ally Cabbabe | defense | 6 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.2 |
| Claire Jackson | defense | 4 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 13.3 | blowout |
| Nerinx Hall | 12.9 | blowout |
| Notre Dame | 12.1 | blowout |
| Clayton | 11.3 | blowout |
| Parkway North | 11.0 | blowout |
| Parkway Central | 10.8 | blowout |
| Parkway South | 10.6 | blowout |
| Belleville West | 10.6 | blowout |
| Francis Howell | 10.1 | blowout |
| Villa Duchesne | 9.9 | — |
| Pattonville | 9.8 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 9.8 | — |
| Marquette | 9.5 | — |
| Kirkwood | 9.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | 9.3 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 9.1 | — |
| Webster Groves | 8.8 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 8.7 | — |
| St. Dominic | 8.7 | — |
| Parkway West | 8.5 | — |
| Northwest | 8.2 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 8.2 | — |
| O'Fallon | 7.7 | — |
| Fox High School | 7.2 | — |
| Lafayette | 7.2 | — |
| Oakville | 6.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | 5.5 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 4.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 4.2 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 4.0 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 3.7 | — |
| John Burroughs | 3.4 | — |
| Westminster | 3.0 | — |
| MICDS | 1.3 | — |
| Wentzville | 0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Eureka",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 1,
"current_composite_rank": 1,
"recommended_rank": 1,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 0,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 62.7,
"score_drop": 15.1,
"returning_production_share": 0.679,
"departure_loss_pct": 15.1,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 47,
"departing_awards_points": 22,
"returning_awards_points": 25,
"flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 1 (prior finish 1). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 1,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 1,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Eureka\", \"avg_margin\": \"8.76\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 1 (prior finish 1). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"1\", \"flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"4.93\", \"score_drop\": \"15.1\", \"top8_games\": \"9\", \"margin_wins\": \"16\", \"top16_games\": \"12\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"17\", \"awards_points\": \"47\", \"margin_losses\": \"1\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"8-1\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"21.4\", \"departing_awards\": \"Amelia Craig (all state first: 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Amelia Craig (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Mel Hoevelmann (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Alyssa Olivio (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Amelia Weick (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Reagan Sipiorski (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Remi Meyers (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"15.2\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"1\", \"returning_awards\": \"Emily Emerson (all state first: 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all state first: 1st Team); Emily Emerson (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Addy Hays (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Emmy Seiler (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Kaitlyn Benoist (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sam Laudano (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Whitney Pickert (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.406\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"7.41\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"1\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"1\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"5.56\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"15.1\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.761\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"7.25\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"5.15\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"7.3\", \"projected_composite\": \"62.7\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"0\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.761\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"1\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.536\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"22\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"5.44\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"25\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"84.92\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"1\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.633\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.679\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"1\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 1,
"projected_margin_rating": 5.44,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 7.25,
"projected_turnover_index": 84.92,
"departing_awards": "Amelia Craig (all state first: 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Amelia Craig (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Mel Hoevelmann (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Alyssa Olivio (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Amelia Weick (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Reagan Sipiorski (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Remi Meyers (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team)",
"returning_awards": "Emily Emerson (all state first: 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all state first: 1st Team); Emily Emerson (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Addy Hays (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Emmy Seiler (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Kaitlyn Benoist (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sam Laudano (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Whitney Pickert (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention)",
"override_voted_rank": 1,
"override_program_notes": "pytest workspace smoke 1fd2d766",
"override_final_rank": 1,
"override_updated_at": "2026-05-30T10:37:57.386968+00:00",
"override_updated_by": "__pytest_workspace_452c1818",
"team_slug": "eureka",
"effective_rank": 1,
"final_rank_resolved": 1
}