Edwardsville
prior #37 · recommended #33 · final #33Margin strength
-2.1
vs top-16 avg -15.0
Projected margin
-2.4
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.416
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
39.57
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
61.09
domain stat
Possession
39.84
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #37
- Recommended (model)
- #32
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #33
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #7
- Projected margin rating
- -2.4
- Departure loss %
- 2.8%
- Returning production share
- 54.4%
- Departure loss
- 2.8%
- Seniors departing
- 13
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.00
Action-flagged
- · large_move_vs_prior
Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Secondary regression: prior_blend_25pct
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norah O'Connor | — | 2 | 7.7% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| Amulya Girada | — | 2 | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Andrah Salyer | — | 1 | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Sophie Byron | — | 1 | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Alayna Garman | — | 1 | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Delaney Cochran | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Andrews | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Bash | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Lee | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Carruthers | — | 0 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ady Barnett | goalie | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% / 0.0% | 11.8 |
| Sophia Jacoby | offense | 9 | 35 | 59.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 8.3 |
| Norah O'Connor | offense | 6 | 4 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 1.1 |
| Amulya Girada | offense | 3 | 4 | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.9 |
| Sophie Byron | offense | 4 | 4 | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.8 |
| Andrah Salyer | offense | 5 | 3 | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.8 |
| Alayna Garman | offense | 5 | 4 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.8 |
| Sophia Carruthers | offense | 2 | 2 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.4 |
| Lola Thomas | offense | 2 | 2 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.4 |
| Grace Andrews | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Shelby Lee | offense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Delaney Cochran | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Ja'Niyah Young | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Karina Martin | defense | 1 | 1 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Madeline Bash | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 9.5 | — |
| Belleville West | 8.2 | — |
| Notre Dame | 7.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 6.8 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.0 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 5.4 | — |
| Northwest | 5.0 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 4.5 | — |
| Eureka | -4.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | -3.9 | — |
| Wentzville | 3.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | 3.8 | — |
| Francis Howell | 3.8 | — |
| Parkway West | 3.4 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 3.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | 3.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | 3.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 3.2 | — |
| Parkway South | 3.0 | — |
| MICDS | -2.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 2.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 2.4 | — |
| Lafayette | 2.2 | — |
| Marquette | 1.9 | — |
| Oakville | 1.8 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -1.8 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 1.7 | — |
| Fox High School | 1.0 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -1.0 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 0.9 | — |
| Westminster | 0.8 | — |
| Clayton | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Edwardsville",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 37,
"current_composite_rank": 14,
"recommended_rank": 32,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -5,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 34.09,
"score_drop": 2.8,
"returning_production_share": 0.544,
"departure_loss_pct": 2.8,
"legacy_prior": 0.0,
"seniors_count": 13,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": "large_move_vs_prior",
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 2,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "confirm_roster_turnover",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 32 (prior finish 37). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "prior_blend_25pct",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 33,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 1,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 36,
"projection_error": -4.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Edwardsville\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 32 (prior finish 37). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.862\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"2\", \"score_drop\": \"2.8\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.0\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"13\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"8.3\", \"projection_error\": \"-4\", \"recommended_rank\": \"32\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.492\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"large_move_vs_prior\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-4\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"37\", \"regression_tracks\": \"confirm_roster_turnover\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"36\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"2.8\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.0\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"1\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"projected_composite\": \"34.09\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-5\", \"composite_split_note\": \"also\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.0\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"14\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.069\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-2.43\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"97.24\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"33\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.667\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.544\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"prior_blend_25pct\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"7\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 7,
"projected_margin_rating": -2.43,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 97.24,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "edwardsville",
"effective_rank": 33,
"final_rank_resolved": 33
}