Cor Jesu Academy
prior #4 · recommended #5 · final #5 legacy 1.00Margin strength
2.6
vs top-16 avg 2.6
Projected margin
-1.6
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.637
as of 2026-05-30
Offense
62.39
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
69.95
domain stat
Possession
67.83
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #4
- Recommended (model)
- #5
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #5
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #9
- Projected margin rating
- -1.6
- Departure loss %
- 35.2%
- Returning production share
- 47.7%
- Departure loss
- 35.2%
- Seniors departing
- 9
- Awards points
- +4 returning · −32 departing
- Legacy prior
- 1.00
Action-flagged
- · award_talent_loss
Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review
Secondary regression: returning_draw_control
Awards
Departing
Cate Figge (all state first: 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all state first: 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all state first: 1st Team); Cate Figge (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Kerry Harrington (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Sophia Work (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)
Returning
Paige Ferris (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Claire Henderson (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Jane Miller (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)
Departing players (2025-26)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cate Figge | — | 63 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 37.4% | 4.8% | 20.5% |
| Maggie Bruno | — | 0 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.7% | 11.9% |
| Sophia Work | — | 27 | 12.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 2.7% |
| Georgia Slinkard | — | 0 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Aly Grzovic | — | 2 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devin Bergan | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Alexander | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Izzy Larkin | — | 2 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerry Harrington | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2025-26)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cate Figge | offense | 17 | 60 | 28.6% | 41.4% | 7.4% | 0.0% / 7.4% | 16.5 |
| Maggie Bruno | goalie | 16 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 46.3% | 43.4% / 2.8% | 11.4 |
| Paige Ferris | offense | 17 | 24 | 10.6% | 32.9% | 6.7% | 0.0% / 6.7% | 10.7 |
| Millie Erickson | offense | 17 | 34 | 16.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 4.8 |
| Jane Miller | offense | 17 | 12 | 5.3% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 0.0% / 6.3% | 4.6 |
| Claire Henderson | offense | 17 | 30 | 15.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 4.3 |
| Sophia Work | offense | 17 | 26 | 12.4% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 3.5 |
| Amanda Missey | offense | 16 | 15 | 8.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% / 3.0% | 3.0 |
| Charlie Cates | goalie | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.7% | 11.6% / 0.1% | 2.9 |
| Summer Vitale | offense | 10 | 1 | 0.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 2.0 |
| Georgia Slinkard | offense | 11 | 1 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% / 3.2% | 1.0 |
| Aly Grzovic | offense | 6 | 4 | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.5 |
| Kerry Harrington | defense | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% / 1.6% | 0.4 |
| Avery Etling | defense | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% / 1.4% | 0.3 |
| Izzy Larkin | offense | 3 | 5 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Megan Flanagan | offense | 6 | 1 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% / 0.7% | 0.2 |
| Devin Bergan | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.1 |
| Emaline Guntli | defense | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.1 |
| Ella Alexander | defense | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2027)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 9.1 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 8.6 | — |
| Notre Dame | 7.8 | — |
| Clayton | 7.1 | — |
| Parkway North | 6.7 | — |
| Parkway Central | 6.5 | — |
| Parkway South | 6.4 | — |
| Belleville West | 6.3 | — |
| Francis Howell | 5.8 | — |
| Pattonville | 5.6 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 5.6 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 5.5 | — |
| Marquette | 5.3 | — |
| Lindbergh | 5.0 | — |
| Kirkwood | 5.0 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 4.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 4.5 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 4.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | 4.4 | — |
| Eureka | -4.3 | — |
| Parkway West | 4.3 | — |
| Northwest | 3.9 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 3.9 | — |
| Wentzville | -3.8 | — |
| O'Fallon | 3.4 | — |
| Fox High School | 3.0 | — |
| MICDS | -2.9 | — |
| Lafayette | 2.9 | — |
| Oakville | 2.6 | — |
| Westminster | -1.3 | — |
| Edwardsville | 1.2 | — |
| John Burroughs | -0.8 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -0.5 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -0.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -0.1 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2027,
"team_name": "Cor Jesu Academy",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 4,
"current_composite_rank": 6,
"recommended_rank": 5,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": 1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 44.2,
"score_drop": 35.2,
"returning_production_share": 0.477,
"departure_loss_pct": 35.2,
"legacy_prior": 1.0,
"seniors_count": 9,
"awards_points": 36,
"departing_awards_points": 32,
"returning_awards_points": 4,
"flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"action_flag_codes": "award_talent_loss",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "award_talent_review",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 5 (prior finish 4). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": -1,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "returning_draw_control",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 5,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": 5,
"actual_finish_rank": null,
"projection_error": null,
"is_backtest": false,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2026-27\", \"team_name\": \"Cor Jesu Academy\", \"avg_margin\": \"4.53\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 5 (prior finish 4). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"5\", \"flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"margin_std\": \"6.89\", \"score_drop\": \"35.2\", \"top8_games\": \"10\", \"margin_wins\": \"12\", \"top16_games\": \"14\", \"legacy_prior\": \"1.0\", \"margin_games\": \"17\", \"awards_points\": \"36\", \"margin_losses\": \"5\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"9\", \"record_vs_top8\": \"5-5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"45.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"Cate Figge (all state first: 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all state first: 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all state first: 1st Team); Cate Figge (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Kerry Harrington (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Sophia Work (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"27.0\", \"projection_error\": \"\", \"recommended_rank\": \"5\", \"returning_awards\": \"Paige Ferris (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Claire Henderson (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Jane Miller (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.364\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"award_talent_loss\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"avg_margin_capped\": \"3.71\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"model_adjusted\", \"league_order_rank\": \"5\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"4\", \"regression_tracks\": \"award_talent_review\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"\", \"avg_margin_vs_top8\": \"0.8\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"35.2\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.578\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"avg_margin_vs_top16\": \"2.57\", \"margin_std_vs_top16\": \"5.92\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"27.3\", \"projected_composite\": \"44.2\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.578\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"-1\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"True\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"6\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.5\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"32\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-1.65\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"4\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"64.85\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"5\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.632\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.477\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"returning_draw_control\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"9\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 9,
"projected_margin_rating": -1.65,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": 2.57,
"projected_turnover_index": 64.85,
"departing_awards": "Cate Figge (all state first: 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all state first: 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all state first: 1st Team); Cate Figge (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Kerry Harrington (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Sophia Work (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention)",
"returning_awards": "Paige Ferris (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Claire Henderson (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Jane Miller (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team)",
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "cor-jesu-academy",
"effective_rank": 5,
"final_rank_resolved": 5
}