Clayton
prior #29 · recommended #28 · final #28 legacy 0.39Margin strength
-1.4
vs top-16 avg -11.0
Projected margin
-2.5
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.388
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
43.70
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
57.37
domain stat
Possession
47.24
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #29
- Recommended (model)
- #28
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #28
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #8
- Projected margin rating
- -2.5
- Departure loss %
- 9.3%
- Returning production share
- 77.7%
- Departure loss
- 9.3%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.39
Info flags:
roster_margin_split
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Meyers | — | 3 | 7.8% | 3.7% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| Iselin Haldiman | — | 7 | 16.3% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| Charlie Meyers | — | 1 | 2.9% | 0.0% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| Maddie Littleton | — | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Grace Kalina | — | 0 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Flotken | offense | 13 | 29 | 36.8% | 60.0% | 2.4% | 0.0% / 2.4% | 14.2 |
| Addison Dumlao | goalie | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% / 0.0% | 7.6 |
| Maddie Meyers | offense | 11 | 8 | 7.8% | 16.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% / 2.6% | 4.0 |
| Mariana Paz Gonzalez | goalie | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% / 0.0% | 3.4 |
| Iselin Haldiman | offense | 7 | 14 | 16.3% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 2.7 |
| Charlie Meyers | offense | 12 | 2 | 2.9% | 15.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% / 0.9% | 2.7 |
| Kate Kubat | defense | 12 | 3 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% / 11.8% | 2.4 |
| Naomi Zaidman | defense | 13 | 3 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 7.9% | 0.0% / 7.9% | 2.1 |
| Genevieve Bueno Perkin | offense | 12 | 7 | 8.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% / 1.5% | 1.7 |
| Claire Downs | defense | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% / 5.3% | 1.2 |
| Marley Dockman | offense | 11 | 4 | 4.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% / 1.8% | 1.2 |
| Riley Poole | offense | 8 | 4 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% / 0.3% | 0.8 |
| Maddie Littleton | defense | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 0.8 |
| Charlotte Whitney | offense | 8 | 3 | 3.2% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.8 |
| Lydia Lee | offense | 8 | 4 | 3.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% / 1.3% | 0.8 |
| Ema McGee | offense | 3 | 1 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.3 |
| Sofia Inshirah | offense | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.3 |
| Grace Kalina | offense | 8 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% / 0.5% | 0.2 |
| Lauren Weigers | offense | 2 | 1 | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% / 0.4% | 0.2 |
| Lola Duffy | defense | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% / 0.8% | 0.1 |
| Giselle Hausladen | offense | 1 | 1 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.1 |
| Noni Murphy | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% / 0.6% | 0.1 |
| Maggie Kabargina | defense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% / 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Lauren Trodus | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% / 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Emi Takao | offense | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word | 9.4 | — |
| Belleville West | 8.2 | — |
| Notre Dame | 7.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | 6.8 | — |
| John Burroughs | -6.0 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | 5.4 | — |
| Northwest | 5.0 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | 4.7 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | 4.5 | — |
| Eureka | -4.1 | — |
| Parkway Central | -3.9 | — |
| Wentzville | 3.9 | — |
| Lindbergh | 3.8 | — |
| Francis Howell | 3.8 | — |
| Parkway West | 3.4 | — |
| O'Fallon | 3.4 | — |
| St. Dominic | 3.3 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | 3.3 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | 3.2 | — |
| Parkway South | 3.0 | — |
| MICDS | -2.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | 2.6 | — |
| Kirkwood | 2.4 | — |
| Lafayette | 2.1 | — |
| Marquette | 1.9 | — |
| Oakville | 1.8 | — |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -1.8 | — |
| Visitation Academy | 1.7 | — |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -1.1 | — |
| Fox High School | 0.9 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 0.9 | — |
| Westminster | 0.8 | — |
| Edwardsville | 0.0 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Clayton",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 29,
"current_composite_rank": 10,
"recommended_rank": 28,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -1,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 44.81,
"score_drop": 9.3,
"returning_production_share": 0.777,
"departure_loss_pct": 9.3,
"legacy_prior": 0.393,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"action_flag_codes": null,
"info_flag_codes": "roster_margin_split",
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 0,
"needs_board_review": "no",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": null,
"board_note": "Recommend rank 28 (prior finish 29). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": null,
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 28,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 27,
"projection_error": 1.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Clayton\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 28 (prior finish 29). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"9.3\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.393\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"roster_margin_split\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"0.9\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"11.5\", \"projection_error\": \"1\", \"recommended_rank\": \"28\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.294\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"\", \"action_flag_count\": \"0\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"29\", \"regression_tracks\": \"\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"27\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"9.3\", \"needs_board_review\": \"no\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.67\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"15.6\", \"projected_composite\": \"44.81\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-1\", \"composite_split_note\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.67\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"10\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.68\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-2.48\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"90.68\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"28\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.767\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.777\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"8\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 8,
"projected_margin_rating": -2.48,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 90.68,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "clayton",
"effective_rank": 28,
"final_rank_resolved": 28
}