Belleville West
prior #38 · recommended #34 · final #34 legacy 0.20Margin strength
-15.0
vs top-16 avg -15.0
Projected margin
-16.1
after grad turnover
Rolling RPI
0.496
as of 2025-05-30
Offense
44.17
domain stat (not blended)
Defense
36.65
domain stat
Possession
40.00
domain stat
Why the model lands here
- Prior finish
- #38
- Recommended (model)
- #34
- Recommended (adjusted)
- #34
- Margin # (diagnostic)
- #33
- Projected margin rating
- -16.1
- Departure loss %
- 9.6%
- Returning production share
- 56.5%
- Departure loss
- 9.6%
- Seniors departing
- 5
- Awards points
- +0 returning · −0 departing
- Legacy prior
- 0.20
Action-flagged
- · large_move_vs_prior
Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover
Secondary regression: prior_blend_25pct;returning_draw_control
Awards
No awards rolled up.
Departing players (2024-25)
Replacement-level subtraction already applied. % of team departure loss is what's left after the bench absorbs.
| Player | Position | Goals | SOS off share | Off loss | Pos loss | Def loss | % of team loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Hoolihan | — | 2 | 8.8% | 4.7% | 36.1% | 0.0% | 9.3% |
| Alivia Barnes | — | 1 | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
Player impact (2024-25)
| Player | Position | GP | Goals | Off SOS share | Pos SOS share | Def share | G / F | Composite pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brynn Flannery-Melson | offense | 8 | 14 | 24.2% | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 10.7 |
| Maggie Hoolihan | offense | 4 | 7 | 8.8% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 6.0 |
| Cecilia Duncan | offense | 7 | 23 | 36.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 5.7 |
| Madeline Ticknor | offense | 4 | 7 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 1.2 |
| Josie Altmansberger | offense | 3 | 5 | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 1.2 |
| Alivia Barnes | offense | 3 | 4 | 5.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.9 |
| Alivia McDonald | offense | 3 | 3 | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.7 |
| Katie Kammann | offense | 1 | 1 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.4 |
| Marley Keifer | offense | 1 | 1 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.2 |
| Jersey Carty | offense | 1 | 1 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.2 |
| Alyssa Hardt | goalie | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.0 |
Projected matchups (2026)
| Opponent | Expected margin | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | -14.2 | blowout |
| Eureka | -12.3 | blowout |
| Parkway Central | -12.1 | blowout |
| MICDS | -11.1 | blowout |
| Cor Jesu Academy | -10.0 | blowout |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | -9.3 | — |
| Clayton | -8.2 | — |
| Edwardsville | -8.2 | — |
| Westminster | -7.4 | — |
| Fox High School | -7.3 | — |
| St. Joseph's Academy | -7.3 | — |
| Visitation Academy | -6.5 | — |
| Oakville | -6.4 | — |
| Marquette | -6.3 | — |
| Lafayette | -6.1 | — |
| Kirkwood | -5.9 | — |
| Webster Groves | -5.6 | — |
| Parkway South | -5.2 | — |
| Villa Duchesne | -5.0 | — |
| Rockwood Summit | -4.9 | — |
| St. Dominic | -4.9 | — |
| O'Fallon | -4.8 | — |
| Parkway West | -4.8 | — |
| Francis Howell | -4.4 | — |
| Lindbergh | -4.4 | — |
| Wentzville | -4.3 | — |
| Francis Howell Central | -3.7 | — |
| Nerinx Hall | -3.5 | — |
| Northwest | -3.2 | — |
| Ursuline Academy | -2.8 | — |
| Francis Howell North | -1.4 | — |
| Incarnate Word | 1.2 | — |
| Notre Dame | -0.4 | — |
Full board packet row (raw)
{
"forecast_year": 2026,
"team_name": "Belleville West",
"season": null,
"prior_finish_rank": 38,
"current_composite_rank": 34,
"recommended_rank": 34,
"composite_rank_diagnostic": null,
"rank_delta_vs_prior": -4,
"rank_delta_vs_composite": null,
"current_composite": null,
"projected_composite": 36.37,
"score_drop": 9.6,
"returning_production_share": 0.565,
"departure_loss_pct": 9.6,
"legacy_prior": 0.205,
"seniors_count": 5,
"awards_points": 0,
"departing_awards_points": 0,
"returning_awards_points": 0,
"flag_codes": "large_move_vs_prior",
"action_flag_codes": "large_move_vs_prior",
"info_flag_codes": null,
"flag_count": 1,
"action_flag_count": 1,
"needs_board_review": "yes",
"review_priority": "medium",
"regression_tracks": "confirm_roster_turnover",
"board_note": "Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 38). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover.",
"secondary_slot_delta": 0,
"secondary_adjustment_reasons": "prior_blend_25pct;returning_draw_control",
"recommended_rank_adjusted": 34,
"adjusted_rank_delta": 0,
"league_order_rank": null,
"actual_finish_rank": 37,
"projection_error": -3.0,
"is_backtest": true,
"raw_row": "{\"season\": \"2025_26_backtest\", \"team_name\": \"Belleville West\", \"board_note\": \"Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 38). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover.\", \"feeder_gap\": \"0.0\", \"final_rank\": \"\", \"flag_codes\": \"large_move_vs_prior\", \"flag_count\": \"1\", \"score_drop\": \"9.6\", \"legacy_prior\": \"0.205\", \"awards_points\": \"0\", \"program_notes\": \"\", \"seniors_count\": \"5\", \"info_flag_codes\": \"\", \"review_priority\": \"medium\", \"board_voted_rank\": \"\", \"defense_lost_pct\": \"0.0\", \"departing_awards\": \"\", \"offense_lost_pct\": \"4.4\", \"projection_error\": \"-3\", \"recommended_rank\": \"34\", \"returning_awards\": \"\", \"team_assist_rate\": \"0.0\", \"action_flag_codes\": \"large_move_vs_prior\", \"action_flag_count\": \"1\", \"adjusted_vs_prior\": \"-4\", \"current_composite\": \"\", \"final_rank_source\": \"\", \"prior_finish_rank\": \"38\", \"regression_tracks\": \"confirm_roster_turnover\", \"actual_finish_rank\": \"37\", \"departure_loss_pct\": \"9.6\", \"needs_board_review\": \"yes\", \"returning_draw_pct\": \"0.6\", \"adjusted_rank_delta\": \"0\", \"possession_lost_pct\": \"24.4\", \"projected_composite\": \"36.37\", \"rank_delta_vs_prior\": \"-4\", \"composite_split_note\": \"\", \"returning_draw_share\": \"0.6\", \"secondary_slot_delta\": \"0\", \"feeder_pair_departing\": \"False\", \"current_composite_rank\": \"34\", \"returning_assist_share\": \"0.0\", \"departing_awards_points\": \"0\", \"projected_margin_rating\": \"-16.15\", \"rank_delta_vs_composite\": \"\", \"returning_awards_points\": \"0\", \"roster_stat_adjustments\": \"late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief\", \"projected_turnover_index\": \"90.4\", \"composite_rank_diagnostic\": \"\", \"recommended_rank_adjusted\": \"34\", \"late_underclass_goal_share\": \"0.87\", \"returning_production_share\": \"0.565\", \"secondary_adjustment_reasons\": \"prior_blend_25pct;returning_draw_control\", \"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic\": \"33\"}",
"margin_strength_rank_diagnostic": 33,
"projected_margin_rating": -16.15,
"avg_margin_vs_top16": null,
"projected_turnover_index": 90.4,
"departing_awards": null,
"returning_awards": null,
"override_voted_rank": null,
"override_program_notes": null,
"override_final_rank": null,
"override_updated_at": null,
"override_updated_by": null,
"team_slug": "belleville-west",
"effective_rank": 34,
"final_rank_resolved": 34
}