Schedule risk matrix — 2027
AD cheat sheet →Pairwise expected margin (row − column). Cells with |margin| ≥ 10 are flagged blowouts.
Forward 2027 outlook from 2025-26 stats. Schedule pairs are isolated from the 2026 backtest matrix.
Margins use k = least-squares fit on MO-vs-MO games from
run_meta.json. Read across a row: positive cells are
projected wins for the row team. Hover any cell to see exact values.
Shift watchlist teams (amber row labels) need slotting review — slot_rank uses the model when flagged; others stay at prior finish. Core override rows (★) have heavy turnover or large model moves.
Shift watchlist — slotting review
19 teams flagged for non-default slotting.
| Team | Prior | Model | Slot | Signals | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Nerinx Hall | 22 | 25 | 25 | talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated;low_returning_heavy_loss | Tier 5 |
| ★ Westminster | 9 | 7 | 7 | sleeper_talent_pool | Tier 1 |
| ★ Fox High School | 29 | 31 | 31 | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | Tier 2 |
| ★ Francis Howell Central | 26 | 24 | 24 | sleeper_talent_pool | Tier 2 |
| ★ Pattonville | 34 | 32 | 32 | sleeper_talent_pool | Tier 4 |
| ★ Wentzville | 15 | 14 | 14 | sleeper_talent_pool | Tier 1 |
| ★ John Burroughs | 3 | 4 | 4 | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | Tier 1 |
| ★ Visitation Academy | 7 | 8 | 8 | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | Tier 1 |
| ★ Belleville West | 37 | 36 | 36 | sleeper_talent_pool | Tier 4 |
| ★ Parkway South | 18 | 19 | 19 | talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated | Tier 4 |
| ★ Parkway North | 33 | 34 | 34 | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | Tier 4 |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 4 | 5 | 5 | margin_overrated | Tier 2 |
| O'Fallon | 8 | 9 | 9 | margin_overrated | Tier 2 |
| St. Dominic | 10 | 11 | 11 | margin_overrated | Tier 3 |
| Marquette | 14 | 15 | 15 | margin_overrated | Tier 3 |
| Ursuline Academy | 19 | 18 | 18 | margin_overrated | Tier 4 |
| Clayton | 27 | 28 | 28 | margin_overrated | Tier 5 |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 2 | 2 | 2 | margin_overrated | Tier 1 |
| Villa Duchesne | 13 | 13 | 13 | margin_overrated | Tier 4 |
Schedule clusters
Fixed tiers of ~8 teams on projected margin. Sort order in matrix follows cluster slot ranks.
Tier 1 (8)
- Eureka slot 1
- Wentzville slot 14
- MICDS slot 5
- Westminster slot 7
- John Burroughs slot 4
- St. Joseph's Academy slot 6
- Ladue Horton Watkins slot 2
- Visitation Academy slot 8
Tier 2 (8)
- Cor Jesu Academy slot 5
- Edwardsville slot 36
- Oakville slot 30
- Lafayette slot 11
- Fox High School slot 31
- O'Fallon slot 9
- Northwest slot 12
- Francis Howell Central slot 24
Tier 3 (8)
- Parkway West slot 17
- St. Dominic slot 11
- Rockwood Summit slot 16
- Webster Groves slot 20
- Francis Howell North slot 25
- Kirkwood slot 23
- Lindbergh slot 21
- Marquette slot 15
Tier 4 (8)
- Ursuline Academy slot 18
- Pattonville slot 32
- Villa Duchesne slot 13
- Francis Howell slot 24
- Belleville West slot 36
- Parkway South slot 19
- Parkway Central slot 28
- Parkway North slot 34
Tier 5 (4)
- Clayton slot 28
- Notre Dame slot 31
- Nerinx Hall slot 25
- Incarnate Word slot 32
| Row \ Col |
Ursuline Academy
|
Pattonville
|
Villa Duchesne
|
Francis Howell
|
Belleville West
|
Parkway South
|
Parkway Central
|
Parkway North
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ursuline Academy | · | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| ★ Pattonville | -0 | · | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Villa Duchesne | -0 | -0 | · | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| Francis Howell | -0 | -0 | -0 | · | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 |
| ★ Belleville West | -1 | -1 | -1 | -0 | · | +0 | +0 | +0 |
| ★ Parkway South | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -0 | · | +0 | +0 |
| Parkway Central | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -0 | -0 | · | +0 |
| ★ Parkway North | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -0 | -0 | -0 | · |
Blowout-risk pairs
0 pairs with projected |margin| ≥ 10. Schedulers should consider avoiding these.
| Team A | Team B | Margin (A − B) | ΔPower |
|---|