ranking_outliers_2026_27
Forward output (2025-26 → 2027) · 12 of 12 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| season | team_name | prior_finish_rank | current_composite_rank | recommended_rank | composite_rank_diagnostic | margin_strength_rank_diagnostic | projected_margin_rating | rank_delta_vs_prior | rank_delta_vs_composite | current_composite | projected_turnover_index | projected_composite | score_drop | returning_production_share | departure_loss_pct | legacy_prior | offense_lost_pct | defense_lost_pct | possession_lost_pct | seniors_count | late_underclass_goal_share | team_assist_rate | returning_draw_pct | feeder_pair_departing | roster_stat_adjustments | awards_points | departing_awards_points | returning_awards_points | departing_awards | returning_awards | actual_finish_rank | projection_error | flag_codes | action_flag_codes | info_flag_codes | flag_count | action_flag_count | needs_board_review | composite_split_note | review_priority | regression_tracks | board_note | program_notes | board_voted_rank | final_rank | final_rank_source | secondary_slot_delta | secondary_adjustment_reasons | returning_assist_share | returning_draw_share | feeder_gap | recommended_rank_adjusted | adjusted_rank_delta | adjusted_vs_prior | league_order_rank | margin_games | margin_wins | margin_losses | avg_margin | avg_margin_capped | margin_std | top16_games | avg_margin_vs_top16 | margin_std_vs_top16 | top8_games | record_vs_top8 | avg_margin_vs_top8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Nerinx Hall | 22 | 32 | 26 | 35 | -16.07 | 4 | 54.18 | 28.54 | 45.8 | 0.107 | 45.8 | 0.927 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 10 | 0.215 | 0.473 | 0.061 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 15 | 15 | 0 | Gretchen Patterson (all state first: 1st Team); Gretchen Patterson (all conference: GISL; Player of Year); Kenley Heinen (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Chloe Schmid (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Lainey Bickel (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team) | large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;legacy_downgrade;award_talent_loss | large_move_vs_prior;low_returning_heavy_loss;legacy_downgrade;award_talent_loss | roster_margin_split | 5 | 4 | yes | also | high | award_talent_review;confirm_roster_turnover;legacy_program_regression;underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 26 (prior finish 22). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior, low_returning_heavy_loss, legacy_downgrade, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; confirm_roster_turnover; legacy_program_regression; underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 25 | model_adjusted | -2 | legacy_pull_1;legacy_depth_floor;prior_blend_25pct | 0.194 | 0.061 | 0.613 | 25 | -1 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 8 | -2.64 | -2.29 | 9.44 | 7 | -10.57 | 2.64 | 4 | 0-4 | -12.0 | ||||||||
| 2026-27 | Fox High School | 29 | 11 | 31 | 13 | -6.61 | 2 | 55.29 | 33.06 | 44.7 | 0.169 | 44.7 | 0.185 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 12 | 0.42 | 0.327 | 0.225 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 15 | 11 | 4 | Clare Keys (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Elayna Birschbach (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Izabella Frissell (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Zoey Boyd (all conference: Red; 1st Team); Kaitlyn Fiscella (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Madison Martise (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); Mindi Hau (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention) | Callie Fitzwater (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Haley Iverson (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention); Kayla Orth (all conference: Red; 2nd Team); McKenna Sinak (all conference: Red; Honorable Mention) | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss | roster_margin_split | 3 | 2 | yes | also | medium | award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 31 (prior finish 29). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 31 | model_adjusted | -1 | late_underclass_surge | 0.529 | 0.225 | 0.0 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 8 | -0.75 | -1.25 | 7.66 | 1 | -7.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| 2026-27 | John Burroughs | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -0.27 | 1 | 55.45 | 41.42 | 44.5 | 0.154 | 44.5 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 7 | 0.253 | 0.403 | 0.047 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 62 | 59 | 3 | Reese Rafferty (all american: All American); Azin Mofidi (all state first: 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all state first: 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all state first: 1st Team); Reese Rafferty (all conference: METRO; Player of Year); Azin Mofidi (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Kate Logsdon (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katy Chapman (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Jane Dunaway (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Sophie Buchowski (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team) | Caroline Deutsch (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Devon Gable (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Flynn Engelsmann (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention) | low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss | 2 | 2 | yes | medium | award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 4 (prior finish 3). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 4 | model_adjusted | -1 | legacy_depth_floor | 0.232 | 0.047 | 0.537 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 5.75 | 5.44 | 5.65 | 14 | 5.07 | 5.73 | 8 | 5-3 | 2.0 | |||||||||
| 2026-27 | Visitation Academy | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | -1.51 | 2 | 54.94 | 36.74 | 45.1 | 0.22 | 45.1 | 0.546 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 6 | 0.232 | 0.335 | 0.404 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 25 | 21 | 3 | Molly Fesler (all state first: 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Caelan Vulin (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Margot Newbold (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Molly Fesler (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Ellie Glarner (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Evie Harris (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Kendall Ann McGowan (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention) | Anna Friedrich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Clare Gunn (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Maria Travers (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention) | low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss;award_talent_loss | 2 | 2 | yes | medium | award_talent_review;underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 9 (prior finish 7). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review; underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 8 | model_adjusted | -1 | returning_feeder_core | 0.393 | 0.404 | 0.213 | 8 | -1 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 6.57 | 5.29 | 6.93 | 10 | 3.9 | 6.14 | 5 | 0-5 | -1.4 | |||||||||
| 2026-27 | Villa Duchesne | 13 | 26 | 13 | 27 | -11.07 | 0 | 79.95 | 52.59 | 20.0 | 0.695 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 28.4 | 2.9 | 28.6 | 1 | 0.607 | 0.423 | 0.566 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 27 | 10 | 17 | Katie Todorovich (all state first: 1st Team); Katie Todorovich (all conference: GISL; 1st Team) | Maeve O'Neil (all state first: 1st Team); Maeve O'Neil (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Elizabeth Meyer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Ellie Wallace (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Emme Rohlfing (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Eva Wallace (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Kenzie Studer (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Margot Todorovich (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention); Sarah Catherin Finney (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention) | roster_margin_split;award_talent_loss | award_talent_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | award_talent_review | Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 13). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review. | 13 | model_adjusted | -1 | returning_draw_control | 0.928 | 0.566 | 0.0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 10.77 | 6 | -8.67 | 5.89 | 4 | 0-4 | -12.0 | |||||||
| 2026-27 | Eureka | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.44 | 0 | 84.92 | 62.7 | 15.1 | 0.679 | 15.1 | 1.0 | 15.2 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 9 | 0.633 | 0.406 | 0.761 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 47 | 22 | 25 | Amelia Craig (all state first: 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Amelia Craig (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Mel Hoevelmann (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Morgan Bilby (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Alyssa Olivio (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Amelia Weick (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Reagan Sipiorski (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Remi Meyers (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team) | Emily Emerson (all state first: 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all state first: 1st Team); Emily Emerson (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Tessa Srsen (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Addy Hays (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Emmy Seiler (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Kaitlyn Benoist (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sam Laudano (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Whitney Pickert (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention) | award_talent_loss | award_talent_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | award_talent_review | Recommend rank 1 (prior finish 1). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review. | 1 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.536 | 0.761 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 8.76 | 7.41 | 4.93 | 12 | 7.25 | 5.15 | 9 | 8-1 | 5.56 | ||||||||||
| 2026-27 | Ladue Horton Watkins | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 | -1.16 | 0 | 70.11 | 49.62 | 29.9 | 0.511 | 29.9 | 1.0 | 34.3 | 11.6 | 42.0 | 5 | 0.412 | 0.393 | 0.149 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief | 40 | 22 | 18 | Colette Brennan (all state first: 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all state first: 1st Team); Colette Brennan (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Vicky Derdoy (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Claudia Gettins (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Joelle Judaken (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team) | Melia Saffold (all state first: 1st Team); Lyla Sandler (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Melia Saffold (all conference: Yellow; 1st Team); Charley Patterson (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Darcy Graftenreed (all conference: Yellow; Honorable Mention); Irene Murphy (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Lillian Schappe (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Sadie Steinbach (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team); Trudy Richardson (all conference: Yellow; 2nd Team) | award_talent_loss | award_talent_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | award_talent_review | Recommend rank 2 (prior finish 2). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review. | 2 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.455 | 0.149 | 0.091 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 4.06 | 3.53 | 6.95 | 14 | 2.43 | 6.57 | 9 | 5-4 | -0.89 | ||||||||||
| 2026-27 | MICDS | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3.22 | -2 | 89.33 | 60.25 | 10.7 | 0.777 | 10.7 | 1.0 | 12.7 | 3.2 | 16.6 | 7 | 0.764 | 0.311 | 0.703 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 34 | 13 | 21 | Amelia Mackin (all state first: 1st Team); Amelia Mackin (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Georgia Lochhead (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katie Sheehan (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team) | Josie Ciaramita (all state first: 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Josie Ciaramita (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Katherine Schott (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Victoria Noble (all conference: METRO; 1st Team); Lilah Pronger (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team); Lydia Brown (all conference: METRO; Honorable Mention); Tara Sadasivam (all conference: METRO; 2nd Team) | award_talent_loss | award_talent_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | award_talent_review | Recommend rank 3 (prior finish 5). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review. | 3 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.688 | 0.703 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 5.71 | 4.57 | 7.01 | 12 | 4.5 | 6.84 | 8 | 4-4 | 0.75 | ||||||||||
| 2026-27 | Cor Jesu Academy | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -1.65 | 1 | 64.85 | 44.2 | 35.2 | 0.477 | 35.2 | 1.0 | 27.0 | 45.0 | 27.3 | 9 | 0.632 | 0.364 | 0.578 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 36 | 32 | 4 | Cate Figge (all state first: 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all state first: 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all state first: 1st Team); Cate Figge (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Georgia Slinkard (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Maggie Bruno (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Kerry Harrington (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Sophia Work (all conference: GISL; Honorable Mention) | Paige Ferris (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Claire Henderson (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Jane Miller (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team) | award_talent_loss | award_talent_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | award_talent_review | Recommend rank 5 (prior finish 4). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review. | 5 | model_adjusted | -1 | returning_draw_control | 0.5 | 0.578 | 0.0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 4.53 | 3.71 | 6.89 | 14 | 2.57 | 5.92 | 10 | 5-5 | 0.8 | |||||||||
| 2026-27 | St. Joseph's Academy | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | -0.74 | 0 | 76.37 | 49.49 | 23.6 | 0.577 | 23.6 | 1.0 | 26.8 | 30.9 | 10.4 | 7 | 0.526 | 0.533 | 0.759 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 28 | 16 | 12 | Reagan Pullium (all state first: 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Reagan Pullium (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Shannon Bryan (all conference: GISL; 1st Team) | Jayne Riva (all state hm: Honorable Mention); Ella Nichols (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Jayne Riva (all conference: GISL; 1st Team); Brooke Butler (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Izzy Perez (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Karolyn Wientge (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team); Maria Najarro (all conference: GISL; 2nd Team) | award_talent_loss | award_talent_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | award_talent_review | Recommend rank 6 (prior finish 6). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review. | 6 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.633 | 0.759 | 0.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 4.07 | 3.5 | 8.7 | 11 | 2.09 | 8.84 | 7 | 4-3 | -2.29 | ||||||||||
| 2026-27 | Northwest | 12 | 13 | 12 | 15 | -8.16 | 0 | 63.9 | 40.23 | 36.1 | 0.382 | 36.1 | 0.57 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 16.6 | 11 | 0.361 | 0.195 | 0.647 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 14 | 11 | 3 | Halle Vance (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Liliana Cornatzer (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Maddi Hogan (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Arabella DeLuca (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention); Breezy Cardwell (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Isla Wingenbach (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Maggie Baumann (all conference: Green; 2nd Team); Sadie Clabaugh (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention) | Allison Long (all conference: Green; 1st Team); Addison Murphy (all conference: Green; Honorable Mention) | award_talent_loss | award_talent_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | award_talent_review | Recommend rank 12 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: award_talent_loss. Suggested follow-up: award_talent_review. | 12 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.56 | 0.647 | 0.0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0.87 | 1.33 | 7.41 | 6 | -3.83 | 9.45 | 2 | 0-2 | -13.5 | ||||||||||
| 2026-27 | Parkway North | 33 | 27 | 34 | 32 | -12.84 | 1 | 66.51 | 28.43 | 33.5 | 0.341 | 33.5 | 0.212 | 38.0 | 20.5 | 42.0 | 4 | 0.148 | 0.321 | 0.077 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 2 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 33). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 34 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.235 | 0.077 | 0.529 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 11 | -11.09 | -8.82 | 4.18 | 1 | -11.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 |