ranking_outliers_2025_26
Forward output (2025-26 → 2027) · 8 of 8 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| season | team_name | prior_finish_rank | current_composite_rank | recommended_rank | composite_rank_diagnostic | margin_strength_rank_diagnostic | projected_margin_rating | rank_delta_vs_prior | rank_delta_vs_composite | current_composite | projected_turnover_index | projected_composite | score_drop | returning_production_share | departure_loss_pct | legacy_prior | offense_lost_pct | defense_lost_pct | possession_lost_pct | seniors_count | late_underclass_goal_share | team_assist_rate | returning_draw_pct | feeder_pair_departing | roster_stat_adjustments | awards_points | departing_awards_points | returning_awards_points | departing_awards | returning_awards | actual_finish_rank | projection_error | flag_codes | action_flag_codes | info_flag_codes | flag_count | action_flag_count | needs_board_review | composite_split_note | review_priority | regression_tracks | board_note | program_notes | board_voted_rank | final_rank | final_rank_source | secondary_slot_delta | secondary_adjustment_reasons | returning_assist_share | returning_draw_share | feeder_gap | recommended_rank_adjusted | adjusted_rank_delta | adjusted_vs_prior | league_order_rank | margin_games | margin_wins | margin_losses | avg_margin | avg_margin_capped | margin_std | top16_games | avg_margin_vs_top16 | margin_std_vs_top16 | top8_games | record_vs_top8 | avg_margin_vs_top8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | O'Fallon | 8 | 16 | 10 | 22 | -8.1 | 2 | 59.87 | 35.92 | 40.1 | 0.259 | 40.1 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 39.1 | 9 | 0.373 | 0.389 | 0.477 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 10 (prior finish 8). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 10 | model_adjusted | -1 | legacy_depth_floor | 0.137 | 0.477 | 0.725 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 4.08 | 2.15 | 9.85 | 7 | -3.29 | 5.44 | 4 | 0-4 | -6.0 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Parkway West | 12 | 19 | 13 | 23 | -8.11 | 1 | 69.87 | 35.29 | 30.1 | 0.311 | 30.1 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 12.1 | 42.0 | 12 | 0.07 | 0.169 | 0.143 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 13 | model_adjusted | -1 | legacy_depth_floor | 0.042 | 0.143 | 0.917 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 5 | 13 | -2.67 | -2.28 | 6.55 | 14 | -4.5 | 5.92 | 9 | 1-8 | -6.78 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Francis Howell | 17 | 17 | 17 | 26 | -8.83 | 0 | 61.6 | 36.94 | 38.4 | 0.315 | 38.4 | 0.583 | 28.5 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 8 | 0.527 | 0.561 | 0.312 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 17 (prior finish 17). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 16 | model_adjusted | -1 | late_underclass_surge | 0.346 | 0.312 | 0.308 | 16 | -1 | -1 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 8 | -1.29 | -0.93 | 6.68 | 9 | -4.22 | 5.31 | 3 | 0-3 | -7.67 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Ursuline Academy | 19 | 26 | 20 | 30 | -11.47 | 1 | 61.6 | 35.39 | 38.4 | 0.268 | 38.4 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 36.9 | 42.0 | 6 | 0.403 | 0.201 | 0.23 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 20 (prior finish 19). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 20 | model_adjusted | -1 | late_underclass_surge | 0.179 | 0.23 | 0.643 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 9 | -0.62 | -0.19 | 8.27 | 7 | -6.86 | 6.74 | 3 | 0-3 | -13.0 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Edwardsville | 37 | 14 | 32 | 8 | -2.83 | -5 | 93.76 | 44.79 | 6.2 | 0.725 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 10.8 | 13 | 0.667 | 0.492 | 0.609 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split | large_move_vs_prior | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | confirm_roster_turnover | Recommend rank 32 (prior finish 37). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover. | 32 | model_adjusted | 1 | prior_blend_25pct | 0.069 | 0.609 | 0.862 | 32 | 0 | -5 | 32 | 11 | 5 | 6 | -3.18 | -2.09 | 8.44 | 2 | -15.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0-2 | -15.0 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Webster Groves | 20 | 13 | 23 | 17 | -6.8 | 3 | 60.0 | 37.66 | 40.0 | 0.309 | 40.0 | 0.45 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 37.0 | 10 | 0.382 | 0.257 | 0.438 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 23 (prior finish 20). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 23 | model_adjusted | -1 | returning_feeder_core | 0.405 | 0.438 | 0.189 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 3.6 | 2.87 | 6.96 | 3 | -2.0 | 4.58 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Incarnate Word | 30 | 33 | 30 | 34 | -18.13 | 0 | 63.85 | 27.34 | 36.1 | 0.307 | 36.1 | 0.106 | 38.0 | 28.4 | 42.0 | 7 | 0.125 | 0.233 | 0.286 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 30 (prior finish 30). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 30 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.0 | 0.286 | 1.0 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 14 | 0 | 13 | -11.21 | -8.71 | 4.69 | 5 | -13.8 | 2.17 | 3 | 0-3 | -13.67 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Belleville West | 38 | 34 | 34 | 33 | -16.14 | -4 | 90.45 | 36.7 | 9.5 | 0.565 | 9.5 | 0.256 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 24.3 | 5 | 0.87 | 0.0 | 0.6 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | large_move_vs_prior | large_move_vs_prior | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | confirm_roster_turnover | Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 38). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover. | 34 | model_adjusted | 0 | prior_blend_25pct;returning_draw_control | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 34 | 0 | -4 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 5 | -2.27 | -1.0 | 10.75 | 3 | -15.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 0-3 | -15.0 |