backtest_grid_summary
Forward output (2025-26 → 2027) · 24 of 24 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| season_slug | projected_label | forecast_year | pipeline_tier | ground_truth_tier | n_teams | naive_mae_all | roster_mae_all | adjusted_mae_all | composite_mae_all | delta_mae_all | naive_mae_top20 | roster_mae_top20 | delta_mae_top20 | naive_within3_top20 | roster_within3_top20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | 2000-01 | 2001 | results_rosters | B | 14 | 2.08 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | -3.67 | 2.08 | 5.75 | -3.67 | 11 | 1 |
| 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002 | results_rosters | B | 14 | 2.92 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 2.12 | 1.04 | 2.92 | 1.88 | 1.04 | 9 | 7 |
| 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003 | results_rosters | B | 14 | 2.43 | 2.14 | 2 | 2.57 | 0.29 | 2.43 | 2.14 | 0.29 | 10 | 11 |
| 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004 | results_rosters | B | 14 | 1.43 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 3.91 | -1.03 | 1.43 | 2.45 | -1.03 | 13 | 7 |
| 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005 | results_rosters | B | 19 | 2.43 | 2.83 | 2.83 | 3.33 | -0.4 | 2.43 | 2.83 | -0.4 | 11 | 9 |
| 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006 | results_rosters | B | 20 | 2.32 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 4.47 | -0.02 | 2.32 | 2.33 | -0.02 | 12 | 9 |
| 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007 | results_rosters | B | 21 | 2.95 | 2.79 | 2.58 | 3 | 0.16 | 3 | 2.78 | 0.22 | 10 | 11 |
| 2006-07 | 2007-08 | 2008 | results_rosters | B | 24 | 3.95 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 0.15 | 3.78 | 3.53 | 0.25 | 11 | 11 |
| 2007-08 | 2008-09 | 2009 | results_rosters | B | 24 | 3.17 | 3.23 | 3.05 | 6.23 | -0.06 | 3.55 | 3.21 | 0.34 | 13 | 11 |
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 | 2010 | results_rosters | B | 24 | 2.25 | 2.27 | 1.91 | 6 | -0.02 | 2.4 | 2.47 | -0.07 | 15 | 15 |
| 2009-10 | 2010-11 | 2011 | results_rosters | B | 24 | 2.17 | 2.09 | 2.09 | 5.55 | 0.08 | 2.25 | 2.16 | 0.09 | 18 | 15 |
| 2010-11 | 2011-12 | 2012 | results_rosters | B | 24 | 3.17 | 3.84 | 3.32 | 5.84 | -0.68 | 3.45 | 3.5 | -0.05 | 12 | 10 |
| 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013 | results_rosters | B | 24 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.71 | 4.24 | 0.1 | 3.25 | 2.94 | 0.31 | 13 | 11 |
| 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014 | results_rosters | B | 26 | 3.12 | 3.55 | 2.91 | 5.18 | -0.42 | 3.3 | 3.39 | -0.09 | 12 | 10 |
| 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015 | results_rosters | B | 27 | 3.54 | 3.73 | 3.55 | 7.91 | -0.19 | 3.05 | 2.38 | 0.67 | 14 | 13 |
| 2014-15 | 2015-16 | 2016 | results_rosters | B | 30 | 3.81 | 4.52 | 4.52 | 6.35 | -0.71 | 4.17 | 4.12 | 0.04 | 7 | 9 |
| 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017 | results_rosters | B | 33 | 4.97 | 5.07 | 4.64 | 6.93 | -0.1 | 4.79 | 4.5 | 0.29 | 8 | 8 |
| 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018 | results_rosters | B | 34 | 5.97 | 5.88 | 5.19 | 7.69 | 0.09 | 7 | 6.75 | 0.25 | 6 | 6 |
| 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019 | results_rosters | B | 34 | 6.27 | 6.1 | 5.97 | 8.24 | 0.17 | 6.3 | 5.84 | 0.46 | 9 | 8 |
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022 | full | B | 37 | 7.68 | 7.79 | 6.88 | 8.76 | -0.11 | 7.35 | 7.4 | -0.05 | 4 | 3 |
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023 | full | B | 38 | 8.38 | 7.67 | 7.12 | 8.58 | 0.71 | 8.26 | 7.11 | 1.15 | 5 | 6 |
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024 | full | B | 39 | 5.68 | 5.6 | 5.14 | 7.6 | 0.08 | 6.55 | 6.45 | 0.1 | 7 | 7 |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025 | full | A | 38 | 3.89 | 3.23 | 2.89 | 7.29 | 0.67 | 3.75 | 3.7 | 0.05 | 11 | 11 |
| 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026 | full | A | 37 | 2.54 | 2.76 | 2.76 | 6.71 | -0.22 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 14 | 13 |