backtest__tune_roster_predictor
Backtest holdout (2024-25 → 2026) · 35 of 35 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| label | drop_per_rank | max_shift | stability_shrink | top8_bonus | grad_damping | grad_caps | secondary | oracle_flags | mae_all_rec | mae_top20_rec | within3_top20_rec | mae_all_board | mae_top20_board | within3_top20_board | prior_mae_top20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| drop3.0_shift3_sh0.9 | 3.0 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.03 | 2.32 | 13/19 | 3.03 | 2.32 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift4_sh0.9 | 3.0 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.03 | 2.32 | 13/19 | 3.03 | 2.32 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift5_sh0.9 | 3.0 | 5 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.03 | 2.32 | 13/19 | 3.03 | 2.32 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production_damp055 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 0.55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift3_sh0.65 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 12/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift3_sh0.78 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 12/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift4_sh0.65 | 2.2 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 12/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift4_sh0.78 | 2.2 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 12/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift5_sh0.65 | 2.2 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.28 | 2.53 | 11/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift5_sh0.78 | 2.2 | 5 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.28 | 2.53 | 11/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production_no_caps | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3.22 | 2.58 | 15/19 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 14/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift3_sh0.78 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift3_sh0.9 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift4_sh0.78 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift4_sh0.9 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift5_sh0.78 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift5_sh0.9 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift3_sh0.78 | 3.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift4_sh0.78 | 3.0 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift5_sh0.78 | 3.0 | 5 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production_no_secondary | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production_top8_0.08 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.08 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production_top8_0.16 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production_damp055_no_caps | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 0.55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3.03 | 2.37 | 13/19 | 3.09 | 2.47 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift3_sh0.9 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.28 | 2.47 | 13/19 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift4_sh0.9 | 2.2 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.28 | 2.47 | 13/19 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.2_shift5_sh0.9 | 2.2 | 5 | 0.9 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.28 | 2.47 | 13/19 | 3.22 | 2.47 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift3_sh0.65 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift4_sh0.65 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop2.6_shift5_sh0.65 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift3_sh0.65 | 3.0 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift4_sh0.65 | 3.0 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| drop3.0_shift5_sh0.65 | 3.0 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 13/19 | 2.47 |
| production_oracle_secondary | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.09 | 2.42 | 13/19 | 2.91 | 2.21 | 13/19 | 2.47 |