backtest__team_strength_2024_25
Backtest holdout (2024-25 → 2026) · 34 of 34 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| team_name | finish_rank | finish_tier | prior_finish_rank | recommended_rank | recommended_rank_adjusted | final_rank | margin_strength_rating | projected_margin_rating | margin_strength_rank_diagnostic | avg_margin | avg_margin_vs_top16 | rolling_rpi | rolling_agd | rpi_strength_blend | rolling_rpi_date | offense_score | defense_score | possession_score | departure_loss_pct | returning_production_share | legacy_prior | turnover_index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Burroughs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.57 | 7.53 | 1 | 8.12 | 7.57 | 0.6374 | 6.84 | 0.7355 | 2025-05-30 | 78.81 | 64.4 | 71.67 | 0.3 | 0.968 | 1.0 | 99.68 |
| MICDS | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5.27 | 2.39 | 4 | 6.47 | 5.27 | 0.6236 | 5.53 | 0.6938 | 2025-05-30 | 77.48 | 70.21 | 81.16 | 24.0 | 0.546 | 1.0 | 76.05 |
| Eureka | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5.94 | 4.38 | 2 | 5.94 | 5.94 | 0.6404 | 4.58 | 0.6937 | 2025-05-30 | 72.06 | 59.98 | 77.38 | 13.0 | 0.729 | 1.0 | 87.03 |
| Ladue Horton Watkins | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3.77 | -0.69 | 6 | 4.29 | 3.77 | 0.6127 | 4.07 | 0.6524 | 2025-05-30 | 64.56 | 73.34 | 64.39 | 37.2 | 0.359 | 1.0 | 62.82 |
| Cor Jesu Academy | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3.15 | 0.59 | 5 | 5.89 | 3.15 | 0.5948 | 4.19 | 0.6347 | 2025-05-30 | 68.72 | 73.43 | 76.49 | 21.3 | 0.696 | 1.0 | 78.71 |
| St. Joseph's Academy | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0.36 | -4.01 | 10 | 4.06 | 0.36 | 0.5726 | 3.27 | 0.5914 | 2025-05-30 | 66.01 | 56.58 | 64.64 | 36.4 | 0.371 | 1.0 | 63.64 |
| Westminster | 7 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | -1.3 | -3.78 | 9 | 2.67 | -1.3 | 0.5375 | 0.94 | 0.5055 | 2025-05-30 | 62.95 | 61.79 | 62.08 | 20.7 | 0.567 | 0.843 | 79.34 |
| Visitation Academy | 10 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -5.27 | -5.34 | 12 | -0.12 | -5.27 | 0.5383 | -0.44 | 0.4786 | 2025-05-30 | 55.78 | 55.56 | 50.5 | 0.6 | 0.971 | 0.546 | 99.44 |
| Marquette | 9 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -1.91 | -5.61 | 14 | -1.17 | -1.91 | 0.5619 | -1.17 | 0.4907 | 2025-05-30 | 55.83 | 60.07 | 67.92 | 30.8 | 0.513 | 0.91 | 69.2 |
| O'Fallon | 8 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -3.29 | -8.11 | 23 | 4.08 | -3.29 | 0.5615 | 3.0 | 0.5736 | 2025-05-30 | 55.76 | 57.83 | 66.92 | 40.2 | 0.259 | 1.0 | 59.84 |
| Lafayette | 11 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | -3.29 | -6.05 | 15 | 2.4 | -3.29 | 0.5496 | 1.61 | 0.5325 | 2025-05-30 | 59.54 | 58.17 | 63.58 | 23.0 | 0.585 | 1.0 | 76.99 |
| Rockwood Summit | 13 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | -6.82 | -8.04 | 21 | -4.5 | -6.82 | 0.5356 | -3.8 | 0.4085 | 2025-05-30 | 54.81 | 59.38 | 59.12 | 10.2 | 0.733 | 0.817 | 89.82 |
| Parkway West | 12 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | -4.5 | -8.11 | 22 | -2.67 | -4.5 | 0.5161 | -0.86 | 0.4453 | 2025-05-30 | 52.13 | 51.19 | 44.6 | 30.1 | 0.311 | 1.0 | 69.89 |
| St. Dominic | 14 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | -5.4 | -8.0 | 20 | 1.36 | -5.4 | 0.5158 | 0.93 | 0.4808 | 2025-05-30 | 62.34 | 53.8 | 59.92 | 21.7 | 0.548 | 0.499 | 78.3 |
| Wentzville | 15 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -5.44 | -8.98 | 26 | -2.73 | -5.44 | 0.4971 | -3.09 | 0.3794 | 2025-05-30 | 51.89 | 48.39 | 56.62 | 29.5 | 0.466 | 0.807 | 70.45 |
| Francis Howell | 17 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | -4.22 | -8.84 | 25 | -1.29 | -4.22 | 0.498 | -0.93 | 0.4237 | 2025-05-30 | 56.04 | 63.12 | 58.92 | 38.5 | 0.315 | 0.55 | 61.48 |
| Northwest | 16 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | -7.33 | -10.77 | 29 | 1.73 | -7.33 | 0.5471 | 1.93 | 0.536 | 2025-05-30 | 64.15 | 63.36 | 56.35 | 28.7 | 0.514 | 0.57 | 71.27 |
| Nerinx Hall | 18 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | -8.0 | -10.33 | 28 | -0.14 | -8.0 | 0.4912 | -0.71 | 0.4204 | 2025-05-30 | 67.17 | 57.41 | 60.82 | 19.4 | 0.576 | 0.927 | 80.62 |
| Villa Duchesne | 21 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | -7.71 | -7.75 | 19 | -1.29 | -7.71 | 0.4858 | -1.5 | 0.3986 | 2025-05-30 | 64.29 | 30.16 | 41.35 | 0.3 | 0.715 | 1.0 | 99.71 |
| Ursuline Academy | 19 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | -6.86 | -11.41 | 30 | -0.62 | -6.86 | 0.4973 | -1.28 | 0.4159 | 2025-05-30 | 51.98 | 61.41 | 58.06 | 37.9 | 0.268 | 1.0 | 62.07 |
| Parkway Central | 23 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 5.83 | 4.08 | 3 | 7.17 | -6.0 | 0.4619 | 5.83 | 0.5184 | 2025-05-30 | 71.64 | 59.76 | 79.65 | 14.6 | 0.726 | 0.362 | 85.41 |
| Kirkwood | 22 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | -4.5 | -6.4 | 16 | 1.0 | -4.5 | 0.4826 | 0.23 | 0.4297 | 2025-05-30 | 56.51 | 52.49 | 45.92 | 15.8 | 0.51 | 0.912 | 84.2 |
| Webster Groves | 20 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 23 | -2.0 | -6.8 | 17 | 3.6 | -2.0 | 0.5236 | 2.87 | 0.5284 | 2025-05-30 | 58.75 | 75.8 | 51.99 | 40.0 | 0.309 | 0.448 | 59.96 |
| Francis Howell Central | 25 | 4 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | -8.5 | -9.99 | 27 | -3.0 | -8.5 | 0.4431 | -2.77 | 0.3253 | 2025-05-30 | 49.99 | 40.53 | 51.27 | 12.4 | 0.253 | 0.45 | 87.62 |
| Parkway South | 26 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | -5.0 | -7.51 | 18 | 1.56 | -5.0 | 0.4465 | 1.19 | 0.4082 | 2025-05-30 | 56.01 | 61.33 | 54.56 | 20.9 | 0.62 | 0.614 | 79.07 |
| Lindbergh | 24 | 4 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 26 | -4.6 | -8.75 | 24 | 2.47 | -4.6 | 0.4738 | 2.2 | 0.4591 | 2025-05-30 | 57.16 | 60.99 | 53.34 | 34.6 | 0.374 | 0.326 | 65.41 |
| Notre Dame | 27 | 4 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | -13.67 | -15.51 | 32 | -3.91 | -13.67 | 0.3932 | -2.64 | 0.272 | 2025-05-30 | 50.59 | 35.5 | 35.13 | 15.3 | 0.604 | 0.196 | 84.74 |
| Clayton | 29 | 4 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | -1.36 | -2.48 | 8 | -1.79 | -11.0 | 0.3883 | -1.36 | 0.2921 | 2025-05-30 | 43.7 | 57.37 | 44.92 | 9.3 | 0.777 | 0.393 | 90.68 |
| Francis Howell North | 28 | 4 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | -11.0 | -13.83 | 31 | -4.0 | -11.0 | 0.4404 | -3.36 | 0.3105 | 2025-05-30 | 42.41 | 64.11 | 41.16 | 23.6 | 0.57 | 0.296 | 76.44 |
| Incarnate Word | 30 | 4 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | -13.8 | -18.18 | 34 | -11.21 | -13.8 | 0.3863 | -8.71 | 0.1426 | 2025-05-30 | 35.2 | 47.64 | 42.64 | 36.5 | 0.307 | 0.099 | 63.5 |
| Fox High School | 33 | 4 | 33 | 31 | 31 | 31 | -1.45 | -4.04 | 11 | -1.27 | -6.0 | 0.4044 | -1.46 | 0.3081 | 2025-05-30 | 47.49 | 73.77 | 45.3 | 21.6 | 0.575 | 0.185 | 78.44 |
| Oakville | 32 | 4 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 32 | -1.31 | -5.49 | 13 | -1.38 | 0.0 | 0.3995 | -1.31 | 0.3055 | 2025-05-30 | 49.59 | 67.58 | 57.68 | 34.8 | 0.445 | 0.107 | 65.21 |
| Edwardsville | 37 | 4 | 37 | 32 | 33 | 33 | -2.09 | -2.43 | 7 | -3.18 | -15.0 | 0.4162 | -2.5 | 0.3005 | 2025-05-30 | 39.57 | 61.09 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.544 | 0.0 | 97.24 |
| Belleville West | 38 | 4 | 38 | 34 | 34 | 34 | -15.0 | -16.15 | 33 | -2.27 | -15.0 | 0.4957 | 0.4397 | 2025-05-30 | 44.17 | 36.65 | 38.64 | 9.6 | 0.565 | 0.205 | 90.4 |