backtest__schedule_clusters_2026
Backtest holdout (2024-25 → 2026) · 34 of 34 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| forecast_year | team_name | cluster_id | cluster_label | rank_in_cluster | cluster_size | sort_value | prior_finish_rank | recommended_rank | slot_rank | shift_watch | shift_slot_override | signal_codes | expected_direction | departure_loss_pct | returning_share | margin_rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | John Burroughs | 1 | Tier 1 | 1 | 34 | 7.53 | 1 | 1 | 1 | no | no | none | 0.3 | 0.968 | 1 | |
| 2026 | Eureka | 1 | Tier 1 | 2 | 34 | 4.38 | 3 | 3 | 3 | no | no | none | 13.0 | 0.729 | 2 | |
| 2026 | Parkway Central | 1 | Tier 1 | 3 | 34 | 4.08 | 23 | 21 | 21 | yes | yes | sleeper_talent_pool | up | 14.6 | 0.726 | 3 |
| 2026 | MICDS | 1 | Tier 1 | 4 | 34 | 2.39 | 2 | 2 | 2 | no | no | none | 24.0 | 0.546 | 4 | |
| 2026 | Cor Jesu Academy | 1 | Tier 1 | 5 | 34 | 0.59 | 5 | 5 | 5 | no | no | none | 21.3 | 0.696 | 5 | |
| 2026 | Ladue Horton Watkins | 1 | Tier 1 | 6 | 34 | -0.69 | 4 | 4 | 4 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 37.2 | 0.359 | 6 |
| 2026 | Edwardsville | 1 | Tier 1 | 7 | 34 | -2.43 | 37 | 33 | 33 | yes | yes | sleeper_talent_pool;model_large_move_up | up | 2.8 | 0.544 | 7 |
| 2026 | Clayton | 1 | Tier 1 | 8 | 34 | -2.48 | 29 | 28 | 28 | yes | yes | sleeper_talent_pool | up | 9.3 | 0.777 | 8 |
| 2026 | Westminster | 1 | Tier 1 | 9 | 34 | -3.78 | 7 | 7 | 7 | no | no | none | 20.7 | 0.567 | 9 | |
| 2026 | St. Joseph's Academy | 1 | Tier 1 | 10 | 34 | -4.01 | 6 | 6 | 6 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 36.4 | 0.371 | 10 |
| 2026 | Fox High School | 1 | Tier 1 | 11 | 34 | -4.04 | 33 | 31 | 31 | yes | yes | sleeper_talent_pool | up | 21.6 | 0.575 | 11 |
| 2026 | Visitation Academy | 1 | Tier 1 | 12 | 34 | -5.34 | 10 | 8 | 10 | no | no | none | 0.6 | 0.971 | 12 | |
| 2026 | Oakville | 1 | Tier 1 | 13 | 34 | -5.49 | 32 | 32 | 32 | yes | no | low_returning_heavy_loss | none | 34.8 | 0.445 | 13 |
| 2026 | Marquette | 1 | Tier 1 | 14 | 34 | -5.61 | 9 | 9 | 9 | yes | no | margin_overrated | down | 30.8 | 0.513 | 14 |
| 2026 | Lafayette | 1 | Tier 1 | 15 | 34 | -6.05 | 11 | 11 | 11 | no | no | none | 23.0 | 0.585 | 15 | |
| 2026 | Kirkwood | 1 | Tier 1 | 16 | 34 | -6.4 | 22 | 22 | 22 | yes | yes | sleeper_talent_pool | up | 15.8 | 0.51 | 16 |
| 2026 | Webster Groves | 1 | Tier 1 | 17 | 34 | -6.8 | 20 | 23 | 23 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 40.0 | 0.309 | 17 |
| 2026 | Parkway South | 1 | Tier 1 | 18 | 34 | -7.51 | 26 | 25 | 25 | yes | yes | sleeper_talent_pool | up | 20.9 | 0.62 | 18 |
| 2026 | Villa Duchesne | 1 | Tier 1 | 19 | 34 | -7.75 | 21 | 19 | 21 | no | no | none | 0.3 | 0.715 | 19 | |
| 2026 | St. Dominic | 1 | Tier 1 | 20 | 34 | -8.0 | 14 | 14 | 14 | yes | no | margin_overrated | down | 21.7 | 0.548 | 20 |
| 2026 | Rockwood Summit | 1 | Tier 1 | 21 | 34 | -8.04 | 13 | 12 | 13 | no | no | none | 10.2 | 0.733 | 21 | |
| 2026 | O'Fallon | 1 | Tier 1 | 22 | 34 | -8.11 | 8 | 10 | 10 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 40.2 | 0.259 | 23 |
| 2026 | Parkway West | 1 | Tier 1 | 23 | 34 | -8.11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 30.1 | 0.311 | 22 |
| 2026 | Lindbergh | 1 | Tier 1 | 24 | 34 | -8.75 | 24 | 26 | 26 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 34.6 | 0.374 | 24 |
| 2026 | Francis Howell | 1 | Tier 1 | 25 | 34 | -8.84 | 17 | 16 | 16 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 38.5 | 0.315 | 25 |
| 2026 | Wentzville | 1 | Tier 1 | 26 | 34 | -8.98 | 15 | 15 | 15 | yes | no | margin_overrated | down | 29.5 | 0.466 | 26 |
| 2026 | Francis Howell Central | 1 | Tier 1 | 27 | 34 | -9.99 | 25 | 24 | 25 | no | no | none | 12.4 | 0.253 | 27 | |
| 2026 | Nerinx Hall | 1 | Tier 1 | 28 | 34 | -10.33 | 18 | 18 | 18 | yes | no | margin_overrated | down | 19.4 | 0.576 | 28 |
| 2026 | Northwest | 1 | Tier 1 | 29 | 34 | -10.77 | 16 | 17 | 17 | yes | no | margin_overrated | down | 28.7 | 0.514 | 29 |
| 2026 | Ursuline Academy | 1 | Tier 1 | 30 | 34 | -11.41 | 19 | 20 | 20 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;margin_overrated;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 37.9 | 0.268 | 30 |
| 2026 | Francis Howell North | 1 | Tier 1 | 31 | 34 | -13.83 | 28 | 29 | 28 | no | no | none | 23.6 | 0.57 | 31 | |
| 2026 | Notre Dame | 1 | Tier 1 | 32 | 34 | -15.51 | 27 | 27 | 27 | yes | no | margin_overrated | down | 15.3 | 0.604 | 32 |
| 2026 | Belleville West | 1 | Tier 1 | 33 | 34 | -16.15 | 38 | 34 | 34 | yes | yes | sleeper_talent_pool;model_large_move_up | up | 9.6 | 0.565 | 33 |
| 2026 | Incarnate Word | 1 | Tier 1 | 34 | 34 | -18.18 | 30 | 30 | 30 | yes | yes | talent_loss_rebuild;low_returning_heavy_loss | down | 36.5 | 0.307 | 34 |