backtest__ranking_recommendations_2025_26
Backtest holdout (2024-25 → 2026) · 34 of 34 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| season | team_name | prior_finish_rank | current_composite_rank | recommended_rank | composite_rank_diagnostic | margin_strength_rank_diagnostic | projected_margin_rating | rank_delta_vs_prior | rank_delta_vs_composite | current_composite | projected_turnover_index | projected_composite | score_drop | returning_production_share | departure_loss_pct | legacy_prior | offense_lost_pct | defense_lost_pct | possession_lost_pct | seniors_count | late_underclass_goal_share | team_assist_rate | returning_draw_pct | feeder_pair_departing | roster_stat_adjustments | awards_points | departing_awards_points | returning_awards_points | departing_awards | returning_awards | actual_finish_rank | projection_error | flag_codes | action_flag_codes | info_flag_codes | flag_count | action_flag_count | needs_board_review | composite_split_note | review_priority | regression_tracks | board_note | program_notes | board_voted_rank | final_rank | final_rank_source | secondary_slot_delta | secondary_adjustment_reasons | returning_assist_share | returning_draw_share | feeder_gap | recommended_rank_adjusted | adjusted_rank_delta | adjusted_vs_prior | league_order_rank | margin_games | margin_wins | margin_losses | avg_margin | avg_margin_capped | margin_std | top16_games | avg_margin_vs_top16 | margin_std_vs_top16 | top8_games | record_vs_top8 | avg_margin_vs_top8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | John Burroughs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.53 | 0 | 99.68 | 70.97 | 0.3 | 0.968 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 7 | 0.922 | 0.363 | 0.982 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 1 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.895 | 0.982 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 8.12 | 7.12 | 5.26 | 14 | 7.57 | 5.42 | 8 | 6-2 | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | MICDS | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2.39 | 0 | 76.05 | 57.49 | 24.0 | 0.546 | 24.0 | 1.0 | 19.7 | 45.0 | 8.8 | 8 | 0.657 | 0.453 | 0.82 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 2 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.39 | 0.82 | 0.219 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 6.47 | 5.53 | 7.52 | 15 | 5.27 | 7.17 | 10 | 6-4 | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Eureka | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4.38 | 0 | 87.03 | 59.39 | 13.0 | 0.729 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 34.7 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 4 | 0.485 | 0.416 | 0.887 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 3 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.506 | 0.887 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 5.94 | 5.25 | 6.24 | 16 | 5.94 | 6.24 | 9 | 7-2 | 1.67 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Ladue Horton Watkins | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -0.69 | 1 | 62.82 | 41.61 | 37.2 | 0.359 | 37.2 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 30.2 | 9 | 0.371 | 0.377 | 0.544 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 5 (prior finish 4). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 4 | model_adjusted | -2 | legacy_depth_floor;returning_feeder_core;returning_draw_control | 0.365 | 0.544 | 0.27 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 4.29 | 4.07 | 5.76 | 13 | 3.77 | 5.64 | 7 | 3-4 | -0.43 | |||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Cor Jesu Academy | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0.59 | -1 | 78.71 | 57.2 | 21.3 | 0.696 | 21.3 | 1.0 | 19.1 | 9.0 | 37.5 | 5 | 0.615 | 0.304 | 0.439 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 5 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.833 | 0.439 | 0.0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 5.89 | 4.78 | 6.76 | 13 | 3.15 | 5.86 | 7 | 4-3 | -0.57 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | St. Joseph's Academy | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4.01 | 1 | 63.64 | 39.27 | 36.4 | 0.371 | 36.4 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 34.1 | 38.7 | 8 | 0.48 | 0.716 | 0.378 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 7 (prior finish 6). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 6 | model_adjusted | -2 | late_underclass_surge;returning_feeder_core | 0.424 | 0.378 | 0.132 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 4.06 | 3.19 | 7.88 | 11 | 0.36 | 6.65 | 6 | 1-5 | -3.17 | |||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Westminster | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3.78 | -1 | 79.34 | 49.87 | 20.7 | 0.567 | 20.7 | 0.843 | 6.8 | 14.3 | 42.0 | 17 | 0.794 | 0.306 | 0.16 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 7 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.745 | 0.16 | 0.0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 2.67 | 2.4 | 8.66 | 10 | -1.3 | 7.67 | 5 | 1-4 | -5.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Visitation Academy | 10 | 22 | 8 | 12 | -5.34 | -2 | 99.44 | 53.76 | 0.6 | 0.971 | 0.6 | 0.546 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 4 | 0.938 | 0.244 | 0.987 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 8 | model_adjusted | 0 | 1.0 | 0.987 | 0.0 | 8 | 0 | -2 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 8 | -0.12 | -0.12 | 9.03 | 11 | -5.27 | 6.4 | 7 | 1-6 | -8.43 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Marquette | 9 | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5.61 | 0 | 69.2 | 42.06 | 30.8 | 0.513 | 30.8 | 0.91 | 38.0 | 13.8 | 42.0 | 7 | 0.292 | 0.133 | 0.401 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 9 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.375 | 0.401 | 0.25 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 6 | -1.17 | -1.17 | 6.31 | 11 | -1.91 | 6.04 | 6 | 1-5 | -5.17 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | O'Fallon | 8 | 16 | 10 | 23 | -8.11 | 2 | 59.84 | 35.45 | 40.2 | 0.259 | 40.2 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 39.1 | 9 | 0.373 | 0.389 | 0.477 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 10 (prior finish 8). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 10 | model_adjusted | -1 | legacy_depth_floor | 0.137 | 0.477 | 0.725 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 4.08 | 2.15 | 9.85 | 7 | -3.29 | 5.44 | 4 | 0-4 | -6.0 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Lafayette | 11 | 15 | 11 | 15 | -6.05 | 0 | 76.99 | 46.05 | 23.0 | 0.585 | 23.0 | 1.0 | 9.2 | 45.0 | 16.5 | 4 | 0.742 | 0.62 | 0.654 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 11 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.786 | 0.654 | 0.0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 7 | -3.29 | 5.96 | 3 | 0-3 | -9.33 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Rockwood Summit | 13 | 25 | 12 | 21 | -8.04 | -1 | 89.82 | 51.75 | 10.2 | 0.733 | 10.2 | 0.817 | 17.2 | 2.9 | 11.5 | 10 | 0.66 | 0.347 | 0.685 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split | roster_margin_split | 1 | 0 | no | yes | medium | Recommend rank 12 (prior finish 13). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review. | 12 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.558 | 0.685 | 0.0 | 12 | 0 | -1 | 12 | 14 | 5 | 9 | -4.5 | -3.93 | 6.68 | 11 | -6.82 | 5.38 | 7 | 0-7 | -9.57 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Parkway West | 12 | 19 | 13 | 22 | -8.11 | 1 | 69.89 | 34.84 | 30.1 | 0.311 | 30.1 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 12.0 | 42.0 | 12 | 0.07 | 0.169 | 0.143 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 13 | model_adjusted | -1 | legacy_depth_floor | 0.042 | 0.143 | 0.917 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 5 | 13 | -2.67 | -2.28 | 6.55 | 14 | -4.5 | 5.92 | 9 | 1-8 | -6.78 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | St. Dominic | 14 | 23 | 14 | 20 | -8.0 | 0 | 78.3 | 46.13 | 21.7 | 0.548 | 21.7 | 0.499 | 17.1 | 16.1 | 31.8 | 8 | 0.62 | 0.271 | 0.425 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 14 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.6 | 0.425 | 0.0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1.36 | 0.93 | 7.67 | 5 | -5.4 | 5.03 | 3 | 0-3 | -8.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Wentzville | 15 | 24 | 15 | 26 | -8.98 | 0 | 70.45 | 36.7 | 29.5 | 0.466 | 29.5 | 0.807 | 14.9 | 45.0 | 29.8 | 8 | 0.745 | 0.287 | 0.531 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split | roster_margin_split | 1 | 0 | no | yes | medium | Recommend rank 15 (prior finish 15). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review. | 15 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.793 | 0.531 | 0.0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 8 | -2.73 | -3.09 | 9.26 | 9 | -5.44 | 5.83 | 6 | 1-5 | -7.5 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Francis Howell | 17 | 17 | 17 | 25 | -8.84 | 0 | 61.48 | 36.38 | 38.5 | 0.315 | 38.5 | 0.55 | 28.7 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 8 | 0.527 | 0.561 | 0.312 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 17 (prior finish 17). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 16 | model_adjusted | -1 | late_underclass_surge | 0.346 | 0.312 | 0.308 | 16 | -1 | -1 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 8 | -1.29 | -0.93 | 6.68 | 9 | -4.22 | 5.31 | 3 | 0-3 | -7.67 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Northwest | 16 | 27 | 16 | 29 | -10.77 | 0 | 71.27 | 44.48 | 28.7 | 0.514 | 28.7 | 0.57 | 38.0 | 6.4 | 42.0 | 11 | 0.387 | 0.272 | 0.309 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split | roster_margin_split | 1 | 0 | no | yes | medium | Recommend rank 16 (prior finish 16). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review. | 17 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.457 | 0.309 | 0.087 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1.73 | 1.93 | 6.6 | 3 | -7.33 | 7.37 | 2 | 0-2 | -11.5 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Nerinx Hall | 18 | 29 | 18 | 28 | -10.33 | 0 | 80.62 | 49.79 | 19.4 | 0.576 | 19.4 | 0.927 | 6.8 | 45.0 | 7.7 | 11 | 0.68 | 0.393 | 0.796 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split | roster_margin_split | 1 | 0 | no | yes | medium | Recommend rank 18 (prior finish 18). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review. | 18 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.712 | 0.796 | 0.0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 7 | -0.14 | -0.71 | 7.93 | 5 | -8.0 | 3.94 | 2 | 0-2 | -10.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Villa Duchesne | 21 | 28 | 19 | 19 | -7.75 | -2 | 99.71 | 45.19 | 0.3 | 0.715 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | 0.932 | 0.377 | 1.0 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 19 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.674 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 19 | 0 | -2 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 8 | -1.29 | -1.5 | 8.72 | 7 | -7.71 | 4.35 | 3 | 0-3 | -11.67 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Ursuline Academy | 19 | 26 | 20 | 30 | -11.41 | 1 | 62.07 | 35.25 | 37.9 | 0.268 | 37.9 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 35.5 | 42.0 | 6 | 0.403 | 0.201 | 0.23 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 20 (prior finish 19). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 20 | model_adjusted | -1 | late_underclass_surge | 0.179 | 0.23 | 0.643 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 9 | -0.62 | -0.19 | 8.27 | 7 | -6.86 | 6.74 | 3 | 0-3 | -13.0 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Parkway Central | 23 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 4.08 | -2 | 85.41 | 59.51 | 14.6 | 0.726 | 14.6 | 0.362 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 25.0 | 7 | 0.721 | 0.494 | 0.508 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split | roster_margin_split | 1 | 0 | no | yes | medium | Recommend rank 21 (prior finish 23). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review. | 21 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.562 | 0.508 | 0.0 | 21 | 0 | -2 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 7.17 | 5.83 | 7.27 | 1 | -6.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Kirkwood | 22 | 18 | 22 | 16 | -6.4 | 0 | 84.2 | 44.07 | 15.8 | 0.51 | 15.8 | 0.912 | 16.0 | 3.8 | 29.0 | 2 | 0.691 | 0.135 | 0.548 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 22 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.667 | 0.548 | 0.0 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1.0 | 0.23 | 8.78 | 4 | -4.5 | 4.51 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Webster Groves | 20 | 13 | 23 | 17 | -6.8 | 3 | 59.96 | 37.15 | 40.0 | 0.309 | 40.0 | 0.448 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 37.1 | 10 | 0.382 | 0.257 | 0.438 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 23 (prior finish 20). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 23 | model_adjusted | -1 | returning_feeder_core | 0.405 | 0.438 | 0.189 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 3.6 | 2.87 | 6.96 | 3 | -2.0 | 4.58 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Francis Howell Central | 25 | 30 | 24 | 27 | -9.99 | -1 | 87.62 | 40.82 | 12.4 | 0.253 | 12.4 | 0.45 | 27.2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5 | 0.435 | 0.227 | 0.423 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 24 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.318 | 0.423 | 0.136 | 24 | 0 | -1 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -3.0 | -2.77 | 6.78 | 4 | -8.5 | 4.43 | 1 | 0-1 | -10.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Parkway South | 26 | 21 | 25 | 18 | -7.51 | -1 | 79.07 | 46.27 | 20.9 | 0.62 | 20.9 | 0.614 | 21.6 | 2.5 | 39.1 | 5 | 0.55 | 0.215 | 0.397 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 25 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.429 | 0.397 | 0.143 | 25 | 0 | -1 | 25 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 1.56 | 1.19 | 7.61 | 4 | -5.0 | 3.27 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Lindbergh | 24 | 20 | 26 | 24 | -8.75 | 2 | 65.41 | 37.96 | 34.6 | 0.374 | 34.6 | 0.326 | 38.0 | 23.8 | 42.0 | 9 | 0.238 | 0.118 | 0.324 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 26 (prior finish 24). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 26 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.294 | 0.324 | 0.412 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 2.47 | 2.2 | 6.71 | 5 | -4.6 | 3.05 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Notre Dame | 27 | 32 | 27 | 32 | -15.51 | 0 | 84.74 | 35.1 | 15.3 | 0.604 | 15.3 | 0.196 | 2.7 | 29.1 | 14.0 | 8 | 0.857 | 0.218 | 0.8 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 27 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.647 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 7 | -3.91 | -2.64 | 10.51 | 3 | -13.67 | 1.15 | 2 | 0-2 | -13.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Clayton | 29 | 10 | 28 | 8 | -2.48 | -1 | 90.68 | 44.81 | 9.3 | 0.777 | 9.3 | 0.393 | 11.5 | 0.9 | 15.6 | 5 | 0.767 | 0.294 | 0.67 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split | roster_margin_split | 1 | 0 | no | yes | medium | Recommend rank 28 (prior finish 29). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review. | 28 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.0 | 28 | 0 | -1 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | -1.79 | -1.36 | 8.78 | 1 | -11.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0-1 | -11.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Francis Howell North | 28 | 31 | 29 | 31 | -13.83 | 1 | 76.44 | 37.33 | 23.6 | 0.57 | 23.6 | 0.296 | 25.6 | 29.0 | 16.0 | 14 | 0.489 | 0.412 | 0.702 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | no | Roster model aligns with priors; no secondary review required. | 29 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.714 | 0.702 | 0.0 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 9 | -4.0 | -3.36 | 8.58 | 3 | -11.0 | 1.73 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Incarnate Word | 30 | 33 | 30 | 34 | -18.18 | 0 | 63.5 | 26.81 | 36.5 | 0.307 | 36.5 | 0.099 | 38.0 | 29.5 | 42.0 | 7 | 0.125 | 0.233 | 0.286 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 30 (prior finish 30). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 30 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.0 | 0.286 | 1.0 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 14 | 0 | 13 | -11.21 | -8.71 | 4.69 | 5 | -13.8 | 2.17 | 3 | 0-3 | -13.67 | ||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Fox High School | 33 | 11 | 31 | 11 | -4.04 | -2 | 78.44 | 41.14 | 21.6 | 0.575 | 21.6 | 0.185 | 19.7 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 11 | 0.516 | 0.321 | 0.905 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split | roster_margin_split | 1 | 0 | no | yes | medium | Recommend rank 31 (prior finish 33). Flagged for board review: roster_margin_split. Suggested follow-up: margin_vs_roster_review. | 31 | model_adjusted | 0 | 0.556 | 0.905 | 0.0 | 31 | 0 | -2 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 7 | -1.27 | -1.45 | 6.87 | 1 | -6.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Oakville | 32 | 9 | 33 | 13 | -5.49 | 1 | 65.21 | 37.38 | 34.8 | 0.445 | 34.8 | 0.107 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 21.4 | 12 | 0.333 | 0.296 | 0.655 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 33 (prior finish 32). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 32 | model_adjusted | -1 | returning_draw_control | 0.219 | 0.655 | 0.562 | 32 | -1 | 0 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 7 | -1.38 | -1.31 | 9.25 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| 2025-26 | Edwardsville | 37 | 14 | 32 | 7 | -2.43 | -5 | 97.24 | 34.09 | 2.8 | 0.544 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13 | 0.667 | 0.492 | 0.0 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split | large_move_vs_prior | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | confirm_roster_turnover | Recommend rank 32 (prior finish 37). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover. | 33 | model_adjusted | 1 | prior_blend_25pct | 0.069 | 0.0 | 0.862 | 33 | 1 | -4 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 6 | -3.18 | -2.09 | 8.44 | 2 | -15.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0-2 | -15.0 | |||||||||
| 2025-26 | Belleville West | 38 | 34 | 34 | 33 | -16.15 | -4 | 90.4 | 36.37 | 9.6 | 0.565 | 9.6 | 0.205 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 24.4 | 5 | 0.87 | 0.0 | 0.6 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | large_move_vs_prior | large_move_vs_prior | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | confirm_roster_turnover | Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 38). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover. | 34 | model_adjusted | 0 | prior_blend_25pct;returning_draw_control | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 34 | 0 | -4 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 5 | -2.27 | -1.0 | 10.75 | 3 | -15.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 0-3 | -15.0 |