backtest__ranking_outliers_2025_26_backtest
Backtest holdout (2024-25 → 2026) · 16 of 16 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| season | team_name | prior_finish_rank | current_composite_rank | recommended_rank | composite_rank_diagnostic | margin_strength_rank_diagnostic | projected_margin_rating | rank_delta_vs_prior | rank_delta_vs_composite | current_composite | projected_turnover_index | projected_composite | score_drop | returning_production_share | departure_loss_pct | legacy_prior | offense_lost_pct | defense_lost_pct | possession_lost_pct | seniors_count | late_underclass_goal_share | team_assist_rate | returning_draw_pct | feeder_pair_departing | roster_stat_adjustments | awards_points | departing_awards_points | returning_awards_points | departing_awards | returning_awards | actual_finish_rank | projection_error | flag_codes | action_flag_codes | info_flag_codes | flag_count | action_flag_count | needs_board_review | composite_split_note | review_priority | regression_tracks | board_note | program_notes | board_voted_rank | final_rank | final_rank_source | secondary_slot_delta | secondary_adjustment_reasons | returning_assist_share | returning_draw_share | feeder_gap | recommended_rank_adjusted | adjusted_rank_delta | adjusted_vs_prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025_26_backtest | Francis Howell | 17 | 17 | 17 | 25 | -8.84 | 0 | 61.48 | 36.38 | 38.5 | 0.315 | 38.5 | 0.55 | 28.7 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 8 | 0.527 | 0.561 | 0.312 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | -7 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error | low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error | roster_margin_split | 3 | 2 | yes | also | high | post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 17 (prior finish 17). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate; underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 0 | late_underclass_surge | 0.346 | 0.312 | 0.308 | 17 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Parkway Central | 23 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 4.08 | -2 | 85.41 | 59.51 | 14.6 | 0.726 | 14.6 | 0.362 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 25.0 | 7 | 0.721 | 0.494 | 0.508 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | -7 | roster_margin_split;backtest_large_error | backtest_large_error | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | high | post_hoc_regression_candidate | Recommend rank 21 (prior finish 23). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate. | 0 | returning_draw_control | 0.562 | 0.508 | 0.0 | 21 | 0 | -2 | |||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Lindbergh | 24 | 20 | 26 | 24 | -8.75 | 2 | 65.41 | 37.96 | 34.6 | 0.374 | 34.6 | 0.326 | 38.0 | 23.8 | 42.0 | 9 | 0.238 | 0.118 | 0.324 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 5 | low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error | low_returning_heavy_loss;backtest_large_error | 2 | 2 | yes | high | post_hoc_regression_candidate;underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 26 (prior finish 24). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss, backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate; underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -1 | backtest_error_shrink | 0.294 | 0.324 | 0.412 | 26 | 0 | 2 | |||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Marquette | 9 | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5.61 | 0 | 69.2 | 42.06 | 30.8 | 0.513 | 30.8 | 0.91 | 38.0 | 13.8 | 42.0 | 7 | 0.292 | 0.133 | 0.401 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -5 | backtest_large_error | backtest_large_error | 1 | 1 | yes | high | post_hoc_regression_candidate | Recommend rank 9 (prior finish 9). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate. | 1 | backtest_error_shrink | 0.375 | 0.401 | 0.25 | 10 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Villa Duchesne | 21 | 28 | 19 | 19 | -7.75 | -2 | 99.71 | 45.19 | 0.3 | 0.715 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | 0.932 | 0.377 | 1.0 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | backtest_large_error | backtest_large_error | 1 | 1 | yes | high | post_hoc_regression_candidate | Recommend rank 19 (prior finish 21). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate. | -1 | backtest_error_shrink | 0.674 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 18 | -1 | -3 | |||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Parkway South | 26 | 21 | 25 | 18 | -7.51 | -1 | 79.07 | 46.27 | 20.9 | 0.62 | 20.9 | 0.614 | 21.6 | 2.5 | 39.1 | 5 | 0.55 | 0.215 | 0.397 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 7 | backtest_large_error | backtest_large_error | 1 | 1 | yes | high | post_hoc_regression_candidate | Recommend rank 25 (prior finish 26). Flagged for board review: backtest_large_error. Suggested follow-up: post_hoc_regression_candidate. | -1 | backtest_error_shrink | 0.429 | 0.397 | 0.143 | 24 | -1 | -2 | |||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | O'Fallon | 8 | 16 | 10 | 23 | -8.11 | 2 | 59.84 | 35.45 | 40.2 | 0.259 | 40.2 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 39.1 | 9 | 0.373 | 0.389 | 0.477 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 10 (prior finish 8). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -1 | legacy_depth_floor | 0.137 | 0.477 | 0.725 | 9 | -1 | 1 | |||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Parkway West | 12 | 19 | 13 | 22 | -8.11 | 1 | 69.89 | 34.84 | 30.1 | 0.311 | 30.1 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 12.0 | 42.0 | 12 | 0.07 | 0.169 | 0.143 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | -4 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 13 (prior finish 12). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -1 | legacy_depth_floor | 0.042 | 0.143 | 0.917 | 13 | 0 | 1 | |||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Ursuline Academy | 19 | 26 | 20 | 30 | -11.41 | 1 | 62.07 | 35.25 | 37.9 | 0.268 | 37.9 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 35.5 | 42.0 | 6 | 0.403 | 0.201 | 0.23 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 20 (prior finish 19). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -1 | late_underclass_surge | 0.179 | 0.23 | 0.643 | 20 | 0 | 1 | |||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Oakville | 32 | 9 | 33 | 13 | -5.49 | 1 | 65.21 | 37.38 | 34.8 | 0.445 | 34.8 | 0.107 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 21.4 | 12 | 0.333 | 0.296 | 0.655 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | roster_margin_split;low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 33 (prior finish 32). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -1 | returning_draw_control | 0.219 | 0.655 | 0.562 | 32 | -1 | 0 | |||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Edwardsville | 37 | 14 | 32 | 7 | -2.43 | -5 | 97.24 | 34.09 | 2.8 | 0.544 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13 | 0.667 | 0.492 | 0.0 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | -4 | large_move_vs_prior;roster_margin_split | large_move_vs_prior | roster_margin_split | 2 | 1 | yes | also | medium | confirm_roster_turnover | Recommend rank 32 (prior finish 37). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover. | 1 | prior_blend_25pct | 0.069 | 0.0 | 0.862 | 33 | 1 | -4 | |||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Ladue Horton Watkins | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -0.69 | 1 | 62.82 | 41.61 | 37.2 | 0.359 | 37.2 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 30.2 | 9 | 0.371 | 0.377 | 0.544 | True | feeder_pair_offense;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 5 (prior finish 4). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -2 | legacy_depth_floor;returning_feeder_core;returning_draw_control | 0.365 | 0.544 | 0.27 | 4 | -1 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | St. Joseph's Academy | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4.01 | 1 | 63.64 | 39.27 | 36.4 | 0.371 | 36.4 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 34.1 | 38.7 | 8 | 0.48 | 0.716 | 0.378 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 7 (prior finish 6). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -2 | late_underclass_surge;returning_feeder_core | 0.424 | 0.378 | 0.132 | 6 | -1 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Webster Groves | 20 | 13 | 23 | 17 | -6.8 | 3 | 59.96 | 37.15 | 40.0 | 0.309 | 40.0 | 0.448 | 38.0 | 45.0 | 37.1 | 10 | 0.382 | 0.257 | 0.438 | True | feeder_pair_offense;late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 23 (prior finish 20). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | -1 | returning_feeder_core | 0.405 | 0.438 | 0.189 | 23 | 0 | 3 | |||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Incarnate Word | 30 | 33 | 30 | 34 | -18.18 | 0 | 63.5 | 26.81 | 36.5 | 0.307 | 36.5 | 0.099 | 38.0 | 29.5 | 42.0 | 7 | 0.125 | 0.233 | 0.286 | True | feeder_pair_offense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | -2 | low_returning_heavy_loss | low_returning_heavy_loss | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | underclass_surge_or_replacement | Recommend rank 30 (prior finish 30). Flagged for board review: low_returning_heavy_loss. Suggested follow-up: underclass_surge_or_replacement. | 0 | 0.0 | 0.286 | 1.0 | 30 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 2025_26_backtest | Belleville West | 38 | 34 | 34 | 33 | -16.15 | -4 | 90.4 | 36.37 | 9.6 | 0.565 | 9.6 | 0.205 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 24.4 | 5 | 0.87 | 0.0 | 0.6 | False | late_underclass_surge_relief;returning_draw_relief | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | -3 | large_move_vs_prior | large_move_vs_prior | 1 | 1 | yes | medium | confirm_roster_turnover | Recommend rank 34 (prior finish 38). Flagged for board review: large_move_vs_prior. Suggested follow-up: confirm_roster_turnover. | 0 | prior_blend_25pct;returning_draw_control | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 34 | 0 | -4 |