backtest__backtest_benchmark_by_tier
Backtest holdout (2024-25 → 2026) · 16 of 16 rows · imported 2026-06-08 15:22
| predictor | finish_tier | tier_label | n_teams | mae | within3 | within3_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior finish (2025) | 1 | tier_1_ranks_1_4 | 4 | 1.75 | 4 | 100.0 |
| Prior finish (2025) | 2 | tier_2_ranks_5_8 | 4 | 1.5 | 4 | 100.0 |
| Prior finish (2025) | 3 | tier_3_ranks_9_16 | 8 | 3.25 | 4 | 50.0 |
| Prior finish (2025) | 4 | tier_4_ranks_17_plus | 21 | 2.62 | 14 | 66.7 |
| Roster-adjusted (prior + turnover) | 1 | tier_1_ranks_1_4 | 4 | 1.75 | 4 | 100.0 |
| Roster-adjusted (prior + turnover) | 2 | tier_2_ranks_5_8 | 4 | 1.25 | 4 | 100.0 |
| Roster-adjusted (prior + turnover) | 3 | tier_3_ranks_9_16 | 8 | 3.12 | 3 | 37.5 |
| Roster-adjusted (prior + turnover) | 4 | tier_4_ranks_17_plus | 18 | 3.17 | 11 | 61.1 |
| Roster-adjusted + secondary (board line) | 1 | tier_1_ranks_1_4 | 4 | 1.75 | 4 | 100.0 |
| Roster-adjusted + secondary (board line) | 2 | tier_2_ranks_5_8 | 4 | 1.25 | 4 | 100.0 |
| Roster-adjusted + secondary (board line) | 3 | tier_3_ranks_9_16 | 8 | 2.88 | 3 | 37.5 |
| Roster-adjusted + secondary (board line) | 4 | tier_4_ranks_17_plus | 18 | 3.28 | 11 | 61.1 |
| Composite re-sort (legacy) | 1 | tier_1_ranks_1_4 | 4 | 5.25 | 3 | 75.0 |
| Composite re-sort (legacy) | 2 | tier_2_ranks_5_8 | 4 | 9.5 | 2 | 50.0 |
| Composite re-sort (legacy) | 3 | tier_3_ranks_9_16 | 8 | 3.62 | 6 | 75.0 |
| Composite re-sort (legacy) | 4 | tier_4_ranks_17_plus | 18 | 7.78 | 6 | 33.3 |